chemgal's picture

chemgal

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Ebola Outbreak

I think the heading is a bit dramatic:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ebola-epidemic-could-become-global-crisis-experts-warn-1.2591338

 

Do you think it will spread further this time compared to previous outbreaks?

 

There was already the one case where Ebola was one of the possible causes of illness, but hemorrhagic (did I spell that right?) fevers have been ruled out now.  Has there ever been a confirmed case in Canada?

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qwerty's picture

qwerty

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Ebola is very contagious. It is almost 100% deadly.  Even with modern medicine the death rate is very high. The deaths are always horrible ande even if one survives one can expect that permanent damage remains.

Even one case is newsworthy.  Thirty-seven cases is truly alarming. I don't think the heading, therefore, is overly dramatic.  I think that if anything it manages to incorporate a matter-of-factness that is rather soothing in the circumstances.

 

qwerty's picture

qwerty

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Another highly contagious disease is measles. Measles is becoming big news in Ontario now.  I'm not sure they have 37 cases yet, though.  This story gives some clue why an ebola outbreak is so threatening.  You can't let an epidemic get started and every increase in the number of cases makes one more likely.

 

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/measles-exposure-warnings-for-3-ont-cities-1.1752853

Pinga's picture

Pinga

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One of the articles outlined that that due to its nature it cannot burn through people as do other illnesses

It had to do with how quickly it kills people

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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Qwerty, it depends on the strain.  I think some strains had a mortality rate as low as 30%, which is actually still very high, but low compared to the strains that are around 90%.  Unfortunately, I've heard the current strain is quite virulent and the 90% number is being thrown around.

 

I don't think it's ever gone airborn between people, so it isn't super contagious that way.  It's all from the blood, but when someone is cough blood, vomitting blood, seizing with blood coming from other orfices it gets in the air temporarily.

 

If someone is on a plane with it but they are in the early stages the risk for the other passengers isn't that high.  I still wouldn't want to be on that same plane though.

qwerty's picture

qwerty

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I'm very relieved to discover there is "good ebola" and "bad ebola". Phew! I feel a whole lot safer now.  Thanks chemgal. ;-)

 

Mendalla's picture

Mendalla

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It does not spread as easily as flu or measles so tends to stay fairly isolated. In this case, travel between the affected countries caused it to spread, but it is still confined to a fairly small chunk of West Africa. As Pinga mentions, the other factor is that it tends to move very fast and incapacitate/kill very quickly which is actually not a very efficient strategy for a virus. Viruses like flu build up over time, giving them more of a chance to spread before the victim is sufficiently incapacitated to reduce the number of contacts. That's not to say that it could not eventually mutate into something more readily spreadable, only that Ebola as it exists today does not present the same pandemic risk as classic transmissible viruses like measles and the flu.

 

Mendalla

 

Mendalla's picture

Mendalla

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qwerty wrote:

Another highly contagious disease is measles. Measles is becoming big news in Ontario now. 

 

Measles is news because it should not be happening in 2014. Sooner or later, the anti-vaxxers are going to reap what they have sown. Big time. And if it gets big enough, even those who are vaccinated may not totally escape its effects. Anti-vax movements are endangering our herd immunity, something that public health has worked hard for decades to build.

 

Mendalla

 

Pinga's picture

Pinga

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The things that make ebola scary are it's high death rate, how fast it is and its symptoms....those are also the things that tend to protect people from a massive spread.  

 

The flu, measles, etc have longer incubation periods before illness is apparent, the symptoms aren't as ugly at first and so they are more likely to spread.

 

 

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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qwerty wrote:

I'm very relieved to discover there is "good ebola" and "bad ebola". Phew! I feel a whole lot safer now.  Thanks chemgal. ;-)

 

Hopefully you'll sleep better at night :)

 

I do think it's possible someone could get on a plane, and start 'bleeding out' during the flight due to how quickly effects can be.  In that case, there could very well be a bunch of new infected people, but they probably wouldn't go on to infect many as I think quarrentine would likely be enforced.  Where that plane lands could make a big difference though.

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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I think they should definately close the airport in Conakry the affected city of 2 million with an Int'l airport if it isn't already closed! Thorough screening and quaruntined for the incubation period of people travelling from affected areas. And they should close nearby airports and borders except for medical personnel until it's quaruntined/ contained. We watched the movie 'Contagion' last week (about a deadly airborne virus that spead fast around the world) so this news is a bit freaky (don't watch it) but it wouldn't be the first deadly or disfiguring virus disease control officials have had to contain and since it's not airborne that's some relief, anyway. Also, it's being passed through rodents, people eating and handling the blood and fluids of rats and bats, in poor areas and not likely people who tend to travel a lot- that's what I read somewhere last night is it's spreading through humans but first from these animals.

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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Kimmio, have the figured out the vector?  I know bats have been suspected for a while, but I don't remember if it's ever been verified.

 

I don't know about quarantining people for travelling from certain areas - it becomes a bit of a logistical nightmare and it also has to be balanced with personal rights.

InannaWhimsey's picture

InannaWhimsey

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if you're curious aboot ebola (or any other lovely disease), here's the place to check it out -- the CDC home page.

 

Note:  the GVRD is currently dealing with a measles outbreak -- as of Mar 24th, there are now 228 confirmed cases, according to Fraser Health.  Patient zero apparently got it from the Netherlands and most of the cases are in the Eastern Fraser Valley (yeah, this area is HUGE...) -- there are a few religious communities there where the immunization rates are low...the one where patient zero is from is called the Netherlands Reformed Congregation.  And now one of those adherents who lives across the border in Whatcom County has it and is currently in isolation.

 

The outbreak is said to be contained.

 

 

Pinga's picture

Pinga

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Hi folks, coz there is so much fear-mongering out there.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/guinea-s-ebola-outbreak-there-are-far-wors...

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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chemgal wrote:

Kimmio, have the figured out the vector?  I know bats have been suspected for a while, but I don't remember if it's ever been verified.

 

I don't know about quarantining people for travelling from certain areas - it becomes a bit of a logistical nightmare and it also has to be balanced with personal rights.


Hi chemgal,

This article says bats are the vector. I read somewhere it was 'fruit bats'.

http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-26/guinea-bans-eating-of-bat...

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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Bats were the vector in Contagion, too. Just more reason to be freaked out after having watched that movie! Movies like that are just to darn realistic (it was pretty realistic).

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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Pinga wrote:

Hi folks, coz there is so much fear-mongering out there.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/guinea-s-ebola-outbreak-there-are-far-wors...

lol I saw that one too.  I think the quote used for the heading was taken a bit out of context.  Far worse diseases - in terms of transmission, absolutely.  I don't think most people would consider the chickenpox to be a far worse disease overall than ebola though.

 

I don't at all expect ebola to turn into a panedemic unless there are some major mutations.  Small outbreaks of it is pretty horrible though, and this time I think it does have the potential to spread further than it typically does.

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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Kimmio wrote:
chemgal wrote:

Kimmio, have the figured out the vector?  I know bats have been suspected for a while, but I don't remember if it's ever been verified.

 

I don't know about quarantining people for travelling from certain areas - it becomes a bit of a logistical nightmare and it also has to be balanced with personal rights.

Hi chemgal, This article says bats are the vector. I read somewhere it was 'fruit bats'. http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2014-03-26/guinea-bans-eating-of-bats-to-limit-ebola-spread-warns-on-rats

I don't know how much I trust the health minister of Guinea for discovering the vector.  I looked at the CDC site, it was updated in Jan or this year and they state there is mounting evidence that it's the bat.

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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Fair enough. It is a little unsettling. I wouldn't say I'm personally worried about it, but am worried about it spreading further than normal and the people it will affect. And that there's no vaccine after it was first discovered so many years ago- the 70s I think.

InannaWhimsey's picture

InannaWhimsey

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YAY CANADIANS!!!

 

Yay Winnipeg!!!

 

and remember, they aren't bats, they're cave chickens ;3

 

See video

 

 

mrs.anteater's picture

mrs.anteater

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Reading about Ebola,makes me more appreciative that we only have a Noro virus outbreak in the community (as every year)

mrs.anteater's picture

mrs.anteater

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Double post

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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I had norovirus once- the sickest I've ever felt in my life. Bed to bathroom to bed to bathroom exclusively. Couldn't do anything else. Went through me like a freight train. But you're right, it pales in comparison.

Pinga's picture

Pinga

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Norovirus has an easy spread, a long contagious period and results in a large number of deaths annually to those who are weak or compromised or young.

 

Given that, norovius is more of a risk in canada or the US.  

Ebola comes in, has a fast period, and high death rate...

 

http://www.cdc.gov/norovirus/about/overview.html

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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Yes, I think a lot of people don't realize they are still contagious with noro even after they're feeling better, which helps to spread it in workplaces, public places, etc. Which means if you get it you should take a week off. Hard for lots of people to do and some employers frown on that much time off. But generally it's short lived and minor for healthy adults. It just feels really, really awful. I mistook it for food poisoning at first, but then I gave it to the person who brought me soup.

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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Off topic a little- but I guess there are too many mutations of noro for an effective vaccine? What's the story with that?

InannaWhimsey's picture

InannaWhimsey

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viruses are cool

 

See video

 

 

 

 

Carl Zimmer's talk aboot viruses from a human organization dedicated to agape

(thank g_odness for viruses -- otherwise, our babies wouldn't be able to live in our wombs...)

See video

 

See video

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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The attacking of an isolation clinic has the potential to make this one worse too:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ebola-clinic-in-guinea-evacuated-after-atta...

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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It seems like it might be in 4 countries now:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ebola-epidemic-confirmed-in-guinea-death-to...

 

The cases in Mali and Sierra Leone aren't confirmed yet, but it isn't looking good.

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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Interesting, I didn't know someone stay infectous for so long afterward:

How is Ebola transmitted?
It’s not just through sex. Direct contact with infected blood, organs, mucus, or other bodily fluids risks transmission, from kissing to sharing needles, soiled towels and bedding. Even those rare few who survive Ebola remain infectious for a while — men can transmit the virus in their semen up to seven weeks after recovery. Health workers and mourners preparing the deceased for funerals are at particular risk. In response, the World Health Organization has already sent 3.5 tons of protective material to Guinea, including biohazard suits, disinfectants and burial shrouds designed to prevent further infection

http://time.com/47018/ebola-breaks-out-in-west-africa/

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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Ghana has sent a sample out for testing after a girl who had a fever and was bleeding died.  I'm not certain, but if all of these countries end up with confirmed cases, this will be one of the worst outbreaks border-wise, and possible the worst that way.

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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It doesn't look good right now:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/04/case-numbers-edge-upw...

 

The Ghana suspected case was negative.  I haven't heard about any more in that country.

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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The only good thing in the article is that it said some people who had it had been discharged from the hospital. Which means some people are able to beat it. Correction: they tested negative. They had it and beat it, or never had it?

chemgal's picture

chemgal

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Some people have recovered from this outbreak.

Kimmio's picture

Kimmio

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That's good to know.

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