Did  you ever think it was possible for the NDP to be at 38% in Quebec.

Is the the end of the Liberals and Bloc as a political force in Quebec as well.

Will the NDP surge continue. Will they climb into the thtirties, or the forties

Interesting article on the polls.

Basically, saying there are serious questions about their validity.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/realitycheck/2011/04/polling-and-the-ndp-surge.html

As I have said before I bellieve polls should NOT be used as election news coverage.  They end up distorting the campaing even more than it already is (if that is possible).  ANd then there is all the bandwagon jumping....

Even more importantly, the one asking the questions is a man who built his career on political polls: Allan Gregg of Harris Decima. If one of the most respected pollsters in Canada, rather than, say, disgruntled politicians, is questioning how polling is done and used, then you know there's a problem.

A couple of his key points:

- response rate for political polls is down to 15%. That is, only 15% of people called agree to be surveyed. Thirty years ago, when he started in the business, it was 70-80%. With that small a sample, the chance that the results are skewed increases. Gregg himself thinks its skewing towards older, less educated, rural folks but he doesn't show any evidence for this.

- The number of people who can be reached by telephone polls is dropping because cell phones are generally unlisted and more and more people are living off their cells and dropping their landlines. There are now 25 million cells in Canada and only 17.5 million landlines. And that ratio will likely continue to skew in favour of the wireless.

So, the question becomes whether the NDP surge is real or just the result of how the polls are being compiled and reported. Although I think the most interesting numbers in the four polls that they compare are the Conservative ones: from 34% all the way up 43%. So, depending on what poll you read, they could be headed for anything from a slim minority to a solid majority.

Mendalla

Anything that gives Graeme hope for Canada, and makes him an optimist is really something.

Besides I believe that the polls are misleading us with claims of a surge for the NDP. It's more like a tidal wave. ;-)

Strategically speaking, if I was at the NDP planning table I would avoid all mention of the supposed surge.  highlighting it could easily backfire (just as the CPC has learned when they start to muse about a majority).  But then they would have to make Jack cut back on his grand dreams....

I think that is what they are doing. Playing it cool. The only thing that has changed is that now they will have to respond to some attacks. Some attacks will be best left ignored, like the ones by the bloc which claims the NDP are treasonous to Quebec and are secret conservatives.

Perhaps the best defense against attacks is to deny, and than continue to present there platform.

The Liberals should be safe from extinction. Corporate wealth in Canada needs two parties reflecting its views to maintain the illusions we have a democractic form of government. Corporations in the US lack the pressure coming from any, serious third party ((the tea party is made up of Rebulicans). For many, perhaps most, Americans, the illusions of democracy is fast weakening. That's why the're been a sudden rise in militias.

But even with life support coming from big business, the Liberals have to go back to th e drawinig board, and rethink just what it is they will pretend to be about.

I really doubt Laytonj wants to be prime minister.  He would then have the reality of not being able to do anything he says he will do without decimating the country and driving taxes through the roof.

Even yesterday he was backing down on all his spending claims.  Now its' "when the finances support it".

It is so easy when you have no chance of taking power to have these wild plans.

But i would love to see the Bloq dessimated in Quebec.  And I think Jack would be a great opposition leader.

Another poll cam out. This time the NDP is only 6 points behind the Tory's. The Tory lead is sipping away.

i thought ndp.  but after reading this i'm thinking liberal.  what do you all think.  man, this election is a tough one to call.  i never thought i would consider strategic voting.

http://www.emcbelleville.com/20110407/editorials/Why+I+withdrew+my+candi...

The polls concern me as does all the publication about them.

Why?  The total vote does not matter.  If it did, Green party would have seats.

It is all about who wins each riding, folks....and that is all about who gets the most votes in that particular seat.  

So, strategic voting is critical to oust the consevatives with whomever is the most likely to beat them.

end of rant.

last pointe - have you ever looked over the spending records of Canadian governments?

The worst spender have been the Conservatives, closely followed by the Liberals. And those goes back to 1867. They are also the two parties that have been the slowest to help Canadians adjust to changing social conditions.

Mackenzie King knew in 1919 that the country and, indeed, most of the world, have to have improved social legislation just for nations to survive. But he and his Liberal successors introduced it as slowlyas possible foro the next seventy years and more.

The Conservatives were generally even slower - though I have some respect for Bennett and Diefenbaker in that regard.

The NDP record in power (provincially, of course) has generally been been far more successful in avoiding debts, and getting value for money. There are real figures on that. We don't have to waste time arguing about it.

I think the international economic and military situation is so bad, it may be impossible to moderate its effects on Canada. A government by either Liberals or Conservatives would guarantee we do down - quickly and heavily. I'm not at all sure the NDP can prevent that. But it's the only chance we have.

It's disturbing to see an election in which the real issues aren't being mentioned. We have been led into one hell of a dangerous situation, especially in North America. This is a crucial election. .But the news media and the voters seem to be treating it like a vote for town council.

Is his riding the same as yours?  Because if not, then his reasoning may not be transferrable to where you live.  If the vote in one's riding typically gets split 45%-40% between Conservatives and NDP, then it is the votes for the Liberals that will most likely be wasted - not the votes for the NDP.

according to the strategic voting sites i've visited i should vote for paul szabo, who is our current mp and also a liberal.

Ideological bias aside, how is this different from the diverse governments who have brought us to this present predicament? Liberals and Conservatives have both served the ends (telos) of capital interest. This to the point that the invocation of social responsibility is considered anathema; ostensibly the rising of the fallen red foe.

Orange may well make present the colour of opportunity, being rooted deep in the ethos of cooperation and solidarity with labour.  A youth phalanx  is waiting in the wings to join its effective freedom and responsibility to serve the narrow prospect of hope in companionship and collaboration with  those who are concerned for persons and habitats more than for corporations and capital gain.

I'm not a great admirer of strategic voting. The whole idea of democracy is that we vote for a party who values and principles we support. Once you start playing games like strategic voting, you're running against the whole sprirt of democracy.

...but hey; it's worked for the government...

Don't worry.  Out antiquated, undemocratic, corrupt and immoral first-past-the-post system will screw the NDP over.

Graeme, one always makes choices, and rarely do you have a perfect fit.  Sometimes, it is about forming a group with similair interests to plow through something, letting go of your individual needs, or finding a compromise.

Strategic voting is about that finding a common ground.

It is about letting go of perfection, recognizing that perfection may not exist, and even it did, may not be able to be realized.

I think I have voted strategically all my life.  All I am doing now, is lookng at the group around me, and determining what will work with them.

sadly pinga, for me strategic voting seems like a necessary evil and i am willing to do it, but i am soooo not the type of person that follows my "head" so being unable to vote for who i truly feel represents me and who i am and what i stand for and the country i want to see is a huge problem.  besh's quote really has me thinking.  i am voting out of fear instead of hope.  damn, just when i thought i had all things figured out!

Beshpin, that is one type of PR system, and you're right about its flaws.

Another model is one in which MPs are elected as they are now, and their votes in parliment are weighted such that even if say, the Greens, got 15% of the popular vote and elected 1 MP, that MP's vote would carry a value equal to what is currently 15% of the total # of seats in parliment.

That way, representation by MPs of a party would be weighted exactly according to the popular vote.  At the same time, it would still be relevant which MPs actually got elected.

The flaw to that system is that Independants would not have any power even if elected, since their "party's" votes would necessarily be an insignificant proportion of the electorate.

MomsFruitCake, I would be suprised if you didn't use your head anyhow, for example, say the person who is running is a complete & utter buffoon, but running for the party you love -- then what?  or...what if the person that is running locally is someone who you really think is fabulous, but it isn't your favourite party.  Your head is engaged to make the choice...even if it is to stick with the party.

 I've been lucky all my life to have lived in ridings where I always felt the strategic vote was always the right one.    Usually the NDP or another party was so far ahead, that I could afford to vote NDP without risking having the Tory's, or Bloc, or PQ win because the NDP split the vote.   What I hated for years in Hull Aylmer, was going door to door, and having people say they liked the NDP but were voting to Liberal to stop the seperatists, or were voting Seperatist to stop the hated Liberals.

If those people had voted for what they wanted, Hull Aylmer would have gone NDP many years ago.

howevr it is happening now.

I would prefer that MPs were free to act as individuals as well, but that is not the reality of our political system.  And I'm all about dealing with reality.

Regarding "what if they didn't elect any MPs" - then we'd have the same situation as we do now with the Green party.  It'd be no worse than our present system.

No - perhaps I didn't describe that part clearly enough.  Let's say the Liberal party gets 30% of the popular vote, and gets 25% of the seats in Parliment (per our current system).  Each Liberal MP's vote then gets an adjusted weight so that the combined Liberal voting power equals 30%.

The same would be done for all parties:  If the NDP get 20% of the vote, and 10% of the seats, each NDP member's vote would be worth twice as much as it is now.

There would be no more "inactive MPs" than there are now.  Each riding would still be represented by a single MP, according to who won in that riding.  The number of votes cast would not change, they would just be weighted differently.

Yeah there'd be a lot of pressure to get that one MP.  Perhaps leaders of all parties should become "MPs" without being attached to a riding, such that each party with a significant % of the popular vote would have influence based on that vote.

Parties with insignificant support would simply have an insignificant weight to their single vote.  But of course, then there's the issue of which "executive MPs" to actually pay, and how much to pay them, because there are a lot of fringe parties...

Still I think the idea deserves some consideration.

i would rarely vote for the person rather than the party. It is very rare that one person will sway a whole parliament - oreven make a significant contribution outside party lines.

I go for the party that comes closest to my views - even if the local rep is a jerk.

Brilliant thinking,

At least now we know how jerks can make it so far in politics.

Well, of course. And, as I understand it, they can rely on your vote.