Some are saying that this election could lead to a PQ majority, and the PQ  will create conflict with the rest of Canada in order to create the "winning conditions" to win a referendum and seperate from Canada.

However I believe the PQ is a ghost of it's former self, and could collapse.  The only issue they had going for them was the charter of Quebec values, which drove voters away from the centre/righht wing CAQ. If the can capture the CAQ vote the can form a majority without winning votes from the other two parties.  

At the begining the PQ were leading in the polls, but than the owner (known as PKP) of Sun News became a candidate for the PQ. PKP is an extreme right wing businessman. SOme call him libertarian, but that is becasue his views on women and LGBT are mainstream in Quebec.  Howevr his media outlets in and outside Quebec have attack minorities including LGBT in the ROC, and muslims, Jews, Roma, Quebec anglos, and so on.  

HOwevr when he announced he was running,  PKP said his was doing it to create a country. Which diverted attention away from the charter and towards independance. WHich eneded up driving some CAQ voters to the LIberals, and social democrats towards the Quebec Solidaire, a left wing party which has two seats from Montreal 

Tommorrow night is the first of two debates and the CAQ is fighting for his lwife and will try to raise question about how she becaem a multimillionaire and corrution alligations that mobsters gave her husband money and jobs,, in order to win influence with various PQ gvts. AT the same time CAQ will ask questions of the Liberal leader who was in business with Arthur Porter, one of Canada's greatest con

Dependoing on where the punches land tommorrow, we could be looking at any number of outcomes.

A New poll shows that the PQ have dropped to 32%.http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/montreal/poll+gives+Liberals+five+point+lead+over/9638118/story.html

The Liberals are at 37 while CAQ is at 16 and QS is at 10. This would mean a Liberal or PQ minority. It depends on how the CAQ vote is spread, and if the QS is able to pick up more seats, (a good chance).  

I don't hear many details about Quebec.  I do have friends living there though, who share some stuff and it's just really bizarre to me.

I don't really want Quebec to separate, but if they did, I don't think I would be personally affected much to be honest.

It's obvious the PQ is now worried about the QS,  

 As the campaign enters its third week, there are clear signs that PQ leader Pauline Marois and her advisers are worried. On Monday, the PQ issued a lengthy release accusing Québec solidaire of dragging the debate over the proposed charter down to the level of “insults and vicious attacks.” Last week, they accused Mercier MNA Amir Khadir — who has never shied away from making controversial statements — of comparing Péladeau to an Iranian dictator.

 

 

PQ ministers Jean-François Lisée and Bernard Drainville, meanwhile, have gone after the leftist party during interviews and on their personal blogs. On Tuesday, Lisée published a mock ‘conversation’ between QS and a random sovereignist voter — who quickly learns that David’s party is really out to divide the sovereignist vote and “help the Liberals win.”

 

 

This time around, the party is fielding 125 candidates across Quebec (half of whom are women) and has hopes of winning Saint-Marie–Saint-Jacques and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve.(in addition to the two they hold now)

 

I do not think there is any chance of Quebec seperating in the next 20 years. 

If they did,  Western Canada would be the least affected part of Canada.

Howver those living in western Canada may want to seperate as well, after Quebec, becasue in a Canada without Quebec, Ontario would control the federal gvt, becasue they will have most of the seats in Parliment.

Also unlike in Europe, Canada is not a nation based on geography or ethnicity. It is a country based on ideas. In a way it is an anti-nation.  Quebec leaving could perhaps lead to changes in the rest of Canada that we have not envisioned.

Yeah, I don't expect it to actually happen, or at least not anytime soon.  In some ways they already are a separate country though.

Manon Masse, one of the 4 QS candidates likely to be elected this time is a very interesting person.  She is a proud lesbian feminist that challenges sexism  in ways not done by a Canadian politican before.

For example she does  remove her facial hair, and sports a moustache proudly. She was also one of the Canadian who attempted to break-up the Israeli blockade of Gaza on board the Canadian vessel Tahrir.

No, Chemgal. some people in Alberta don't seem to see any advantage in being part of Canada.  But if Quebec were to become a separate nation, how long do you think we would have a Canada.   Ontario would become 'the East'.   And the Maritimes - forget them.  Have you ever thought about what would happen to the Maritime provinces if they were cut off from Ontario and the west.  How long could we survive on our own?   

We hear talk about two countries - Quebec and 'theRestofCanada'.   There wouldn't be any 'rest of Canada'.   Even if Manitoba and points west stayed together, I doubt if Ontario would be part of the picture for long.   As for the East - forget them.  Apparently many people in the West already have.

You are right, Seeler.  Canada is a country of regions.  I have felt that from having lived in Nova Scotia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec.  However, I don’t think a breakup of the country is imminent based on what is happening in Quebec today.  The PQ has been forced to play down referendum and separation talk and hide their star separatist candidate PKP (Pierre-Karl Péladeau) because polls show that even the pur and dur  (“pure and strong” Quebec nationalists) don’t want to totally separate from Canada.

I agree with Seeler in that a Canada without Quebec is likely to splinter.  Canada is more than I sum of it's region, it's an idea, it's a place of diversity, it's the unnation. 

However according to the latest poll separation is not happening soon or ever.

A new poll from the Toronto Star shows that the Liberals lead 45 to 32 for the PQ. With CAQ at 13 and QS at 7

This means that Quebec Nationalist who are against separation are leaving the CAQ en mass for the Libs,, but that left wingers, Labour and other fellow travelers are leaving the PQ and QS to vote Liberal.  The left detest PKP and it was he who raised the question of independence in the election, so he alone may end up wiping out the PQ.  

In fact while current projections show the PQ holding 30 or so seats, those projections may be wrong since they are based on old models created from prior elections.  Basically polls showed the PQ had been shut out of Gatineau  and in Quebec City, and the city of Montreal they may disappear.    Their strength was in the suburbs of Montreal and small towns.  The new polls show them tied in these areas or second to the Liberals.  The PQ is a hollowed out ghost and has no way of pulling their vote.

The PQ also has no place to grow,  Voters asked which party was their 2nd choice and : 32% for CAQ, 21% for QS, Greens 18%, PLQ 13%, PQ 9% and ON 7%   

So we may see support return to the CAQ and QS as the threat of a PQ victory disappears.  

Funniest election sign picture so far.  

I was wondering if fielding someone with Peladeau's reputation for being a control freak and having a rather right-wing leaning politically would hurt the PQ. They have traditionally been fairly leftish. The fact that he seems to be running for President of the Republic of Quebec more so than for a seat in the provincial legislature can't help, either. The answer seems to be "Yes".

Personally, I want that province to crap or get off the pot. I am sick and tired of hearing about how they either want to leave but keep a say in things like the Bank of Canada (sorry, it ain't happenin') OR they want to stay but remain a "distinct nation" within Canada. If you want to be a "distinct nation", then become one by separating AND getting your own institutions. If you are going to be a Canadian province, then accept that that is what you are and stop trying to behave like you are somehow more special and more deserving of Ottawa's attention than the others. Any power that one province gets, all provinces should be getting. Quebec's powers over things like immigration and the QPP should be handed back to Ottawa where they constitutionally belong or we should accept other provinces getting the same (of course, Ontario is actually musing about an Ontario pension system but I suspect that will be a supplement to, rather than replacement for, CPP).

Given their reputation for corruption, the Quebec Liberals are hardly angels but maybe they are the lesser of two evils in this election (I don't really know much about the CAQ at this point).

Mendalla

It's not a big talked about thing on this end of the country, but I am sure the seperation would be felt here, too, somehow. I don't know much but I would think that it would be an economic disaster for Quebec, all the things they'd need to change to be totally independent.

Péladeau totally derailed the PQ when he declared that he entered the election to make a country that he can be proud to leave to his children.  The focus was supposed to have been on the values charter while a referendum and separation were to simmer on a far-back burner.  PKP seems to be in hiding now.  The public "shove" that Marois gave him was priceless.

What will not go away for a long time, even if the Liberals win as the polls this afternoon indicate they will, is the overt racism and bigotry that the PQ has let loose through its Quebec values charter.  The state has made it acceptable to be racist and bigoted.  It is disquieting that the PQ cannot even recognize its own racism and bigotry as it defends its candidates’ blatant insults of “the others”.   Marois is the most blinkered of the succession of PQ leaders: she has neither worked nor studied outside the province. It shows.

The next stage of the campaign starts this evening with the first of two public debates.  

Many people enjoyed seeing Peladeau being pushed aside by MArois. Perhasp others would as well??  

Marois looked defensive and combative in the debate tonight.

David was smooth and looked happy , but often ignored.

Couillard the Liberal looked like a winner and curiously among 2 men and 2 women, he was the prettiest.

The CAQ leader Legaut was shaky at first but may have saved his party 10 seats with a performance that got better as time went on

It seems there is no consensus on who won the debate. this likely means it will not affect the vote. but we will see when the polls come out. It could be shocking.

I wonder how many PQ backroom boys head desked when that happened. Nothing else he could have done would have done the kind of damage that did.

Mendalla

Not much to report from the candidates. Howevr a Pollster who has a column in the Jounal de Montreal, has done an analyst of the polls done Tuesday. HE tried to break down the poll proejections in the east end of MOntreal where the QS is strongest. He says that the QS has a chance in 5 seats in the east end.  If this is so, than it really shows how the PQ are effectively a spent force in the city of  Montreal, which is essentially split between the Liberals and QS (Quebec Solidaire)

Anaylst are also saying that the debate on THursday likely changed no ones minds. Howevr we are still waiting for post debate polls.

A new poll by CTV says support for Quebec seperating is higher outside quebec than it is inside.  

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/ctv-exclusive-poll-rest-of-canada-rejects-pos...

I don't think it would fragment Canada to that extent.  Polically, some tensions, yes.  No other province has been pushing for separation like Quebec has.  Sure, there are some fringe parties, and they might gain a bit of momentum, but I think it would just be enough to generate some interesting stories.

I image the area around Quebec would be greatly affected.  Borders would probably be redrawn.

It's hard to say for sure of course, as it would be a big change for Canada.

I don't know what you mean that people in the West have forgotten about the East.

Try to picture a country with a big hole in it where a huge chunk has been torn out - not off the edge, but just east of the center.  A big part on one side of the hole; another part on the other side and no physical connection.

What happens to roads and railroads?   How do people from the Maritimes receive goods from Ontario and the west?   Which foreign country do they travel through (with border crossings and tariffs) - Quebec or USA?   And what about NL - their only land connection is through Quebec?   How long before we need to have a passport to travel through Quebec?

What happens to the St. Lawrence Seaway and shipping between the Great Lakes and the Atlantic ocean?

And what about border disputes.   I don't think Quebec and NL agree on the present border.  Quebec will probably try to claim a large chunk of Labrador and its hydro-electric power. 

What about hydro lines that cross Quebec?   And the proposed pipeline?

What about the First Nations peoples in Quebec?  I understand that they are against separation.  Will they have to submit to being part of Quebec?  How much support can they expect from 'the rest of Canada' if they try for self-determination?  and how much land will they claim?

And what about the populations of French people living in 'the rest of Canada'?  Right now French makes up a sizeable percentage of the total Canadian population.  With the majority pulling out to become a separate nation, what happens to those French living in NB, Ontario, Manitobe?  Will 'the rest of Canada' still be a bilingual country?  Will they have any protection for their language and culture?

I don't see this as a simple ' let Quebec go if they want to'.  It's going to affect the 'rest of Canada'.   And I think there will be blood shed.

The First Nations will be the messiest scenario. They will likely vote to remain in Canada and could try to take the James Bay area with them, if only to force Quebec to negotiate since that would disrupt the James Bay hydro projects. If Quebec responds with force, can Canada stay aside? In Oka, the Forces stepped in when things got too hot between the QPP and the natives. If that happens in an independent Quebec, would the Forces involvement be considered to be an invasion and trigger some kind of war?

Then there's Montreal which has mused in the past about separating from an independent Quebec to remain in Canada. That could turn messy, too, if Quebec tries to use force to keep them in.

And, given the PQ's increasingly hardline approach on certain issues (e.g. the secular charter), I wonder how they will handle the inevitable exodus of targeted groups, many of whom are critical to their economy, to Ontario and the West.

It is best if it does not happen. At the same time, this game of the rest of Canada constantly bending over backwards to appease them has to stop. It's not going to keep them in, just ensure that more of our money goes down the toilet when they do leave.

Mendalla

Mendalla,

What has Canada given in to Quebec demands, As opposed to not doing anything to stop them from doing things like creating a seperate pension plan, which it seems Ontario may do so as well. Or as just being tired of hearing priveledged francophones  complain

What anglophones outside of Quebec are tired of;  are  the francophone community living in the rest of Canada,  These are actually another group of people who do not identify as Quebecers, and who are only demanding what the constitution says governements have to do. 

Just like there is a lot of discrimination towards anglos in Quebec from the majority, so is there a lot of discrimination against francophones living outside QUebec.

Anyway the anglos in Quebec, who have actually paid a price at the hands of nationalists are joking,  that now that polls show more Canadians want Quebec to seperate than Quebecers do, it will help the federalist cause.   Because the complaint nationalist use is based on is the myth of the Quebecois people being humilated at the hands of the anglo since the battle of the plains of Abraham..  

So they imagine those who believe in the humilation myth complaining that by asking Quebec to go that they are being humilated again by the anglos, and that they will insist on staying. 

Perverse aren’t they, Alex?

But is it a myth?  If I had been beaten up, had my nose bloodied and broken, my cousin killed and then were told to pay respect to the vainqueur, it would be a bitter pill to swallow that I wouldn’t forget soon.  Even generations removed from the battle of the Plains of Abraham, there are those for whom memories and stories of memories of things English, from the condescending attitude of the conqueror on whom one’s livelihood depended to the English Queen herself and the English language can touch a raw nerve.  There are those who get over it – but then have lived through their own personal humiliation even in the late 20^th and early 21^st centuries – and they don’t really forget it.  They move forward adapting when and as necessary.  Hey, French and English even inter-marry!  But down deep, the hurt is still there.  It takes a long wait and just the right moment to hear an unguarded comment that exposes raw deep-seated feelings.  I have seen from both sides where comments are tempered according to who is listening.  And that is why I think that some have still not been able to say that they are “maître chez nous” (Masters in our own house).  They still feel residual humiliation.

Unfortunately, the PQ is really playing to this feeling of identity through the values charter.  That is essentially their only platform.  Polls have told Marois that separation won’t fly but people especially those outside Montreal and Quebec (city) really want a homogeneous society.  That is making the “others” who speak with an accent or who dress differently, especially Muslim women who cover their head and/or face, targets of insults and assaults.  Marois as premier had the avenue to build on the diverse strengths of a diverse society to move forward on the global scene; instead, she is still fighting past battles and her legacy, win or lose, will be a regressive and intolerant society. 

Once again, Quebec is a federalist province although with a strong and maybe healthy “nationalist” undercurrent. 

The Liberal leader, Philippe Couillard, and the liberal party won by a landslide in yesterday’s election; the Parti Québécois was decimated and Pauline Marois went down to defeat in her own riding and resigned last night.  But before she could resign, the three probable contenders for the succession to the PQ leadership, who all won in their ridings, were letting their leadership ambitions show.

I use “nationalist” above in the sense in which it is so often used in Quebec, meaning belonging to the Quebec nation which means québécois, French, pure laine (undiluted French), de souche (old stock) and not really that inclusive of “others”.  Well maybe this last part about non-inclusiveness is not quite accurate.  It is undoubtedly a strong feeling that no politician can ignore but on the other hand it was not strong enough to carry the day for Marois who tried to base her campaign on the promise to implement her charter of québécois values.  This charter, in my view, was narrow, discriminatory, racist, xenophobic, impractical, hurtful and divisive.  It would have been in contravention of both the Canadian and Quebec  charters of rights.  This latter was confirmed by Marois herself when someone succeeded in getting her to admit that she would use the notwithstanding clause to implement the charter of values over provisions of the two charters of rights.

She was diverted in her controlled say-little campaign by the PKP fist-pumping declaration of wanting to have a country that he could be proud of to leave to his children and she never recovered from that point on.  Strong performances by François Legault, leader of the CAQ and by Françoise David of the QS, during the second public debate, made the outcome of the election a real nail-biter and pundits wouldn’t even make predictions.

Couillard came under attack on several issues but he is the only politician in years who has boldly stated that bilingualism is an asset, even an indispensable asset, not a threat and that bilingualism is what most Quebec parents wish for their children.  And despite saying that, he won!

As an English radio commentator said on radio this morning, this is the first time in years that I am beginning to really feel like a Quebecker.

And news this morning says that the real estate market is moving again... people are not afraid to buy homes in the province.

I was so upset that such a nice person as ms. Marois should have lost the election - and I am even more upset at Alex's seeming pleasure in her defeat.

Love thy nieghbour, Alex.

As for the Liberals, I spent fifteen or more years of my life in meetings of the English rights group, many times every night of a week. And many a weekend. And the Liberals did us almost as much damage as the PQ did.

So I'll give just half a cheer for the election results.

Too bad, though. Another year or so in power, and Marois could have destroyed separatism completely.

So was she, poor soul.  And rather humbled.  And accepting comforting reassurances from “the three Stooges” as Drainville, Péladeau and Lisée are now nicknamed as they fall over each other in their undeclared race to the leadership of the party.  Bernard Landry says the prize should go to Péladeau.

With regard to leveling the language playground, yes; with regard to limitations on some services, usually language-based, yes; with regard to higher costs of doing business in compliance with bill 101,  yes.  But they didn’t hold referendums or try to break up the country.

I think she succeeded in forcing everyone to see that the vast majority of the populace does not want a referendum ergo no separation.  What the majority still wants is a strong French identity that is considered the normal cultural identity, to be preeminent and the gold standard for this part of the world.  That part of the values charter will live on.  There may be a new openness to bilingualism as long as it doesn’t displace French.

I think the idea that separation is dead is a false one.  Separation for it's own sake is dead. But as Trudeau Jr said, even he would support separation if he though the rest of Canada was like Harper.

I di think however that the PQ is in a death spiral. Pauline did her job, and cut the throat of the weakened and diseased animal, aka PQ. There's no hope for it to survive.

Within a year if not much sooner the CAQ will become the official opposition. They only need 5 or so PQ to cross over.  All that is left in the PQ are opportunists like Marois (last Thursday on a morning show she attacked the CAQ for being irresponsible for supporting a tax cut, and than after seeing a poll at lunch, she promised at tax cut in an interview for a drive home show, breaking the previous world record held by Romney for a 100% turn around by a politician.)

The three stooges like Marois do not believe in separation. What they believe in is that they are like a George Washington/William Tell/ Bolivier. Jesus lol   

However they are a joke. ( a popular April fools day joke this years was for young people to declare themselves for the PQ on social media) and they are the past. (The PQ placed 4th with voters under 25) 

The PQ may survive to the next election if they transform themselves into an openly facist party. ala Front National.  However even then it would mean they would become a party of small rural regions.  Already they are the third Party on the Island of Montreal, and third in the suburbs, and they are shut of the next two biggest urban areas (Quebec and Gatineau)

So I doubt if they will be around. As there elected rural members will go to the CAQ. While those who do not go to the CAQ in the MTL region will be a rump of a 7 seats. 

The solution quebec wants - essentially a unilingual society - probably won't last, especially in Montreal. Already - and for some years - large firms like Bombardier routinely ignore the language laws.

The Netherlands is something like Quebec, surrounded by two, larger languages. So the Dutch speak all three, and commonly a fourth and fifth.

In New Brunswick, all government services and most private ones ae available in both languages. There's still room for improvement. But it works well.

The reality is that Quebec has to relate to an overwhelming English world all around it - sometimes for work, sometimes for pleasure. So the old formual was to send the children of the upper middle class to private schools where, like Trudeau, they could learn excellent English, and use it to get as rich as their parents and as powerful, politically.

Then, to keep things that way, they forced the French working and lower classes into cheaply run and very bad public schools that kept them socially trapped. It was never the English who kept the French down. (In fact, the english had a higher proportion in the working class than the French did - and their's was the lowest level of the working class.)

Much of French Quebec's problems were caused by its own social structure.

Now - I don't see any direction in Quebec politics and society at all. Certainly, we won't see much from the Liberals. Who knows what we're in for?

As for the nonsense of preserving a culture, there is no such thing.  French Quebec culture is already vastly different from what it was in my teens.

Anyway, nobody knows what a culture is. They think they do. but they don't. Even the PQ was never able to define the culture it said it was saving.

The same goes for Quebec values. It is a Quebec value to be a secular society? It is now. It wasn't forty years ago. And it may  be back in forty years.

Quebec is nowhere close to solving its problems. It hasn't even come close to figuring out what they are.

In the same way, Canada has lost any sense of direction or national purpose. We are now simply an appendage, an obedient one, of the US. I'm surprised there hasn't been more attention to the recent reform and expansion of our army special ops to work in close cooperation with US special ops. They were be answerable only to the pm and the minister of defense.

That means they will be used as US special ops are - to break Canadian and international law by fighting illegal wars. They will also be useful to beat and murder local employees of Canadian companies in the third world to make them happy in their work.

I am not counting the PQ out. I have seen far too many cases of parties being counted out, only to rise from the ashes again. Ditto the BQ federally.

That said, I don't think any of the mooted contenders are the leader to do it. None of them have given any indication in their performance that they are a leader who will do more than dig the grave deeper by continuing to hammer the themes that failed them this time.

Mendalla

My suspicion is that Peladeau went in there to wreck the PQ. He did it by raising the ghost of separation. He didn't do it out of idealism. There is no idealism in that wretched man.

I have no knowledge of why he did it Perhaps it was to win back the love of his wife who is divorcing him.

Or like I said he and other narcissists believe they are the George WASHINTON OF QUEBEC

so how much longer does the PQ have as part of Canada?

how big is the FLQ (seperatist?) movement now?

I don't remember the percentage. But I know it's right off the radar for young people, now. When I  think of all those hours and weekends spent in meetings, debates.........

The PQ came in forth place among voters under 25.

Independence for it's own sake is dead.  However even Justin Trudeau said he would support independence if the rest of the country kept reelecting Harper.

Don MacPherson of the Gazette says that independence is dead unless federalist do something to provoke it. (ie promises constutional reforms, and than fail, to deliver them)

One curious thing happening now is that Pauline Marois and her aids are not returning the Liberals calls,.

After the last election if took two days to turn over power from the Liberals to the PQ.  The PQ are not saying why the refuse to talk to the incoming Liberals on making arrangements to hans over power, however they have let the press know that they plan on handing over power on Wednesday, 9 days after the election.

Apparently Marois was shell-shocked by the election results.  Her team had kept from her how poorly the PQ were really doing and I think she really believed her little finger when it told her on the eve of the election that people would be really happy at the end of the election  - thinking of course that she would be back in power.  The word is that she only learned as the election results rolled in just how unpopular she and her party and what they stood for had become.

As for the turnover of power, the meeting between the two leaders seems to be primarily symbolic.   She certainly is dragging her feet on that.  But Stéphane Bédard, the interim leader, as well as political pundits, have said that the work of transferring power is already ongoing with civil servants and others less in the public eye taking care of things.  I hope they are not deleting files during this delay.

I wonder how Couillard and other leaders are going to reverse the ill will towards the "others" that the PQ engendered through their values charter.  

I can see no other reason for the delay. Perhaps one of her aids needed another week of gvt work in order to be eligible for a pension

However I suspect they are search for and deleting files that may be used against her, her husband  and her staff.

 That is what happened in Ontario when McGuinty left. 

Couillard has said that he will make public the legal advice that the PQ received in regard to the values charter.  So that file had better be around when the turnover to the Liberals is made because everyone will be watching for it.  If it is missing, then the PQ will fall even lower in the integrity ratings.  On the other hand, the detail that will be divulged may show that the PQ were prevaricating when they said that the proposed charter did not contravene either of the bills of rights.  Either way, the PQ will probably not look good.

Couillard  made a good decision in saying he will engage an outside auditing firm to review the financial books so that the public can have faith that the report is unbiased.  Already, there are reports going around that the deficit is $2billion greater than the finance minister had stated and the deficit will not be able to be eliminated within the next year or two as Nicolas Marceau had suggested in the budget he delivered a week before the election call.