Serena's picture

Serena

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The Great Recession

So, the great recession you guys have all been talking about is upon us now in Alberta.  It happened overnight.  Well the grocery prices have been creeping up since June 2008.  The utilities have been high ever since Klein privatized them. 

 

Now people I know are losing their jobs.  Several businesses in my town have gone broke in the past few months.

 

How long with this last?

 

How bad do you think this will get?  Will we be cancelling our Internet and going to the food bank?

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SLJudds's picture

SLJudds

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There was a major recession in Alberta in the late '70's and early '80s. With high interest rates, low investment due to Trudeau's phony "energy crisis" cutoff of gas and oil exports to theU.S., and a drastic drop in real estate values, the total effect was disastrous. I was forced to move to Ontario, as I knew I was disabled and while I kept working I couldn't stand the physical demands of the Western scene in my trade (both my wrists were permanently broken).

We all know Ralph Klein and the Winter Olympics brought Alberta out of the recession (the tools were there - he used them). That's why he was so highly respected out West. That recession only affected the West and times are different now.

The oil sand construction is still going strong - if not so frenzied. The coal bed methane is still in it's early stages of development, and the incredibly huge coalfields themselves guarantee long range resource stability (hundreds of years for coal). moreover the "tools" I mentioned earlier (low debt) are still mostly there.

The current recession is centered on manufacturing, and will generally bypass Alberta like it did in the '90's. They won't miss it altogether, but unless real estate values collapse altogether Alberta will be fortunate in comparison to most of Canada.

Count your blessings Serena.

cjms's picture

cjms

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It is bad.  It is likely to get worse and it will be awhile before we get out of it.  Many people have walked away from their houses and are utilizing food banks like never before.  Each day the news seems to get worse but hopefully by the end of the year, we'll start to see some improvement...cms

Wonderingg's picture

Wonderingg

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Since everything "concrete" in Alberta was so overvalued anyway, it is said that Alberta will be hit the hardest. (A friend pays $1200.00/month for a room in Fort Mac.) The good news is that economists are predicting that the recession in Canada will likely only last a year to 18 months, while the US economy could sputter for as long as 5 years. The good news for us in the Maritimes is that some of our people might move home...

Serena's picture

Serena

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I moved my investments today.  Lost $8000.  Now I have them 100% guaranteed.  At least what is left of them.

somegirl's picture

somegirl

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Economically it is bad news if Maritimers move back home.   There is no way our economy could absorb them, our unemployment rate would be back in double digits in no time flat.  Some of the oil companies are still looking for skilled people out there so I don't think that too many of them will be coming home any time soon.  A few of the construction people might be coming home, but what are they going to do here?  Build shacks for themselves in the woods?  It would be nice if the city put them to work filling pot holes.

HoldenCaulfield's picture

HoldenCaulfield

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No province will escape this recession, we are all in for a dark ride...

alta's picture

alta

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Holden is right.  If I were to bet on a province to be least affected, I'd put my money on Saskatchewan.  They still have fairly a heavy reliance on agriculture, which has always been relatively recession-proof.  Either that or farmers are so used to hard times they don't notice a recession.  But seriously, grain prices have stayed pretty healthy, fuel and fertilizer prices have come down; all in all, ag is a good place to be right now.

lastpointe's picture

lastpointe

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Oil prices haver affect Alberta and saskatchewan is affected by commodity prices as well.  We are all in for some tough times and using our savings to pay for life.

The ones who seem safe at the moment are those Civil Servant jobs but I expect if this goes on all Governments will have to start cutting jobs and not replacing people ( I doubt they can fire anyone due to contracts.)

Pinga's picture

Pinga

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It's continuing to drop.....jobs are still being lost....

 

My sense is that it is going to get a lot worse...and I worry about people.  There are people who have never expected to hurt...who are hurting significantly right now.

Roscoe's picture

Roscoe

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I am in the financial advisory business.  Based on my reading, the OECD is calling for a world wide decline of 4% of GDP this year.  In 2010, they are calling for a recovery of only 1.2%.

Unfortunately, I am taking a negative view.  This is the worst recession since the great depression of 1929-39.  It will take us several years to recover.

 

Free_thinker's picture

Free_thinker

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The worst way to respond to all this is to turn inwards and retreat into the safety of nationalist populism and protectionism.  So far, the G20 has been holding the line in terms of emphasizing the need to keep international trade going, but it doesn't take much to get a tarrif war started - which would be catastrophic. 

Free_thinker's picture

Free_thinker

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"There are people who have never expected to hurt...who are hurting significantly right now."

 

I'm worried about what's going to happen to my generation - the hipster generation - who saw no discrepancy between getting degrees in Diversity Studies and yet still nurturing hopes for a glamorous job afterwards - preferably in an NGO or the cultural sector.  What are we going to do with all those Diversity Studyists? 

 

Something tells me our fastfood workforce will become a lot more educated, and our law schools more competitive than they already are. 

Pilgrims Progress's picture

Pilgrims Progress

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Roscoe,

And what ended the great depression was world war 2 - that's the biggest worry of all. It's one thing to lose money and your job, but there's nothing more precious than one's life.

graeme's picture

graeme

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I would not pay much attention to predictions of economists. Some saw this coming - though a great many didn't. I don't think they've suddently become insightful. Besides, they're overlooking several factors in this.

One is that the people in charge of fixing things in north america, expecially in the US, are the ones who caused it, and who have a stake in preserving the system which made them rich.If the system requires major changes - and I suspect it does - then these are the people least likely to make those changes.

Another is the relative decline of the west. We now face serious competition in the military power to control the middle east, africa and south america, all of which have been crucial to our supply of cheap resources. We often forget how much of our prosperity over centuries has been due to military dominance. That appears to be ending.

Here in the maritimes, we do hear a lot of fatuous talk about how things are pretty sound here. That's nonsense. If the rest of the world is in decline, we decline, too. We can't be prosperous just by taking in each other's washing.

Albera faces the same problems as everybody else. It also has one hell of an invirnomental problem to face up to. Thanks to people like Klein.

graeme

SLJudds's picture

SLJudds

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My Freedom 55 program got changed to Freedom 65, them Freedom 75. Now I have the 6-49 retirement plan; I win, I retire. I don't win, I work till I drop.

cjms's picture

cjms

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Oh damn, SLJudds.  I was already on the 6-49 plan.  I think I'm screwed!...cms

graeme's picture

graeme

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st judd's and cjms, don't despair. It may not sound like much of a chance to win - but there are draws twice a week, so that improves the odds substantially. That's what I'm depending on.

graeme

jesouhaite777's picture

jesouhaite777

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It will get a lot worse before it gets better .... If people would only stop buying crap stay away from the malls they would have enough cash for food rent transportation.

 

Internet service or bread hmmmm? do you really need to spend hundreds of dollars a year on Tivo and cable ? $400.00 a month cell phone bills ? so you can send moronic text msgs ?

 

You don't have to give it all up you just have to give up the add-ons

 

It sounds oversimplified but it really is simple.

SLJudds's picture

SLJudds

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Buying crap keeps the economy running. Our economy is based on more. As long as we produce and sell more and more, the economy is OK. When we stay the same, or buy less, the economy tanks and we have a recession.

It's like a Ponzi scheme on a global scale.

achiever1's picture

achiever1

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I have taken the positive approach. I set myself up in my own business and rolled up my shirt sleeves and got to work. There are some good opportunities out there if you want them. Have you noticed lately that MLM is now NOT considered a dirty word. There are some good ones out there and I have discovered one that is recession proof. It can save business as much as 50% on their telecommunications bills, and at the same time make you a very comfortable living. It also saves you on your income taxes, and makes you, your own boss.What could be better than that.

SLJudds's picture

SLJudds

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In my experience? - An honest job.

Anything that looks too good to be true invariably is.

Motheroffive's picture

Motheroffive

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Since the private sector is in collapse, wise governments would increase public spending in areas that have been neglected for years such as education, child care, health care, the environment and infrastructure. It would provide jobs, keep cash flow circulating through our local economies and benefit all of us. Sadly, in spite of the predictons of many (yes, I've read about this happening for a few years now), and the broken-ness of the corporate sector, many of our governments seem to that think more of the same (privatization, reduction of government services, etc.) will cure the problem, which isn't at all rational. Well, I guess it's rational if one's motives for being in power are other than what is good for the people and the country itself.

 

More of the same? Those loud-mouths (beginning in the Reform Party but extending beyond that into the Liberal Party and nowadays, the Conservatives) have jeopardized our CPP, for starters. They whined and cried about how our public pensions couldn't possibly be sustainable until the CPP fund was handed over into the clutches of the private sector -- now what's going to happen? Governments now spend a much smaller proportion of the GDP on services than they did, while all the while, saying they're spending so much, especially in health care (spending is OUT OF CONTROL!!!)  yet the percentage of the health care to GDP has also gone down considerably.

 

We've got to stop listening to these people -- I think that it's asinine to look to those business folks and economists who guided us into this place for the answers. "If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got" -- goes the adage. It's time we took a different approach...but chances are, a sufficient number of us will vote for the same thing, somehow thinking those people know what they're doing and that they have our interests at heart. They don't and we need to break out of denial around that.

InannaWhimsey's picture

InannaWhimsey

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I enjoyed this article: http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/economy/hacking-economy

 

I also have a bunch of books that I could give as a list of for people to read to self-educate themselves if people are interested?

 

Walking out past the breakers,

Inannawhimsey

elisabeth's picture

elisabeth

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I think that we just have to hold on and let it roll by.  The people who are really going to be hurt by the recession are those who need to sell their homes right now or use their RRSPs.  The rest of us if we can just hold on and not freak out we will just be fine.  Remember land always retains back to a reasonable amount at some point.  These over valued amounts were just greedy really.  But if you can hang on long enough you really can't lose on land.  The conservative investments I think will come back as long as you can afford the time to ride the markets. 

I feel very sorry though for those folks who are relying on their RRSPs in order to live though as all of a sudden their retirement monies are worth a lot less now. 

InannaWhimsey's picture

InannaWhimsey

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Here are two more links I found very engaging and enlightening (especially in the sense that "the recession" isn't inherently a Bad Thing):

http://rushkoff.com/2009/04/20/in-defense-of-the-dark-ages/

http://rushkoff.com/2009/04/16/stimulus-ass-backwards/

 

Walking out past the breakers,

Inannawhimsey

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