North Koreas nuclear tests have barely reached the capacity of 2 kilotons (2013). India's first nuclear test in 1974 reached 8 kilotons. The USA's first test was 20 kilotons.

I would think they would need a bigger "gun" than the rest of the world in order to be taken as a serious threat, but that shouldn't stop the USA from creating a fear based phobia amongst it's own people in order to "pre empt "a war.

whoops

whoops

Does anyone know how big of an area a 2k bomb would release. How does this compare to the melt downs at Chernobal, 3 mile Island, and the melt down after the Japanese earthquake two years ago. Or the bombing of Hiroshima?
 

1 kiloton = energy yield of 1000 tons of TNT

Here's a link to the wikipedia article of the effects of nuclear explosions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions  My math and physics skills aren't up to actually interpreting most of what's there to be honest.

Personally I think they way North Korea is going on that the world can't afford to actually ignore the threat. They might not be able to hit the States but still they might hit mainland China for example.  It's like having a mentally unstable 3 year old with a bomb as a neighbor. You can't even deal rationally or logically with them because as far as I can tell the government of north Korea doesn't actually have a sufficient grasp of reality to respond in a logical or rational manner. They might actually go and do something truly, suicidally stupid simply to prove a point - at which point South Korea will probably be an island rather than the end of a peninsula.

North Korea seems to regularly crave attention and they regularly threaten war. For an isolated regime, they like making a mark on the world stage and having people talk about them. They routinely make crazy threats like attacking the United States. When all is said and done, even if they had the capacity to do it, I don't believe that even the Kim dynasty is foolish enough to think they could get away with a nuclear attack on the United States without being virtually wiped out in response.

The problem is that the world can't afford to ignore them outright because there's always the possibility that they might just be insane enough to follow through or at least attempt to follow through on one of those crazy threats. Ignoring them totally could even result in them trying something out of sheer pique. But on the other hand giving them the attention they want, even if it is negative attention, just reinforces the bad behavior.  

It's a similar diemna when dealing with borderline or other personality disorders. In my experience, if you pay attention to their "crisis" you feed in to their disorder, and risk making it worse.  Howevr sometimes they do carry through and commit suicede or hurt others. However in the long wrong the bulk of the harm is caused by how they get us to react. Ie we do something that is unwise, or while we pay attention to them, somelse ( athird party, and in this case it could be the US or China and  takes advantage of the distraction they cause, or to justify some other behaviour which ends up being of a greater potential harm.

Has anyone had the experience of trying to help someone in your family, community or church? Yet only to realise after putting time and enrgy into it, you could not do anything, that the person making all the noise about needing help would not face the real problem.  And than finding out that someone else, who is quiet, had a simpler problem with which you could have help, and made a significant difference, was ignored by you, just because the other person was louder.

Is this similar.

Today (or last night?) they seemed to tone it down a bit from 2 days ago and only said they were determined to continue development of nuclear weapons and rockets. Sounded more like what we'd heard months ago. Personally, I would like to see if basketball diplomacy works. It's one way to actually start dialogue on a peaceful level it seems. Nobody else has gotten that up close and personal with KJU. Sounds crazy, I mean it's bizarre, but usual tactics dealing with NK haven't worked up until now and it's been going on since long before KJU took power- so if basketball can do some good, why not?

I can never decide whether North Korea is being crazy - or is asking for money as a bribe. Certainly, the latter has been the case in the past.

They need a different approach with the new guy.

Hi Alex,

All threats are real in that they are threats that have actually been made.  The likelihood of following through on a threat helps us to assess our response to the threat.

While I think the leadership in North Korea appears delusional.  I do not think that they are a credible threat otherwise they would do more than provoke and bluster.

I think that this is an immature and poorly socialized government looking for attention without actually begging for help.

Grace and peace to you.

John

And, without dismissing the silliness of N. Korea's threats, let's take note of the timing of it. The US and S. Korea are having war games.

And who would such a war be against?

And would the US actually invade a country with no reason? You have to ask?

America is taking him seriously. Adding missiles in Alaska and California. Also more radar in Japan.

They will not invade N. Korea.

They will invade Iran.

It's scary stuff, because nobody knows how to read N. Korea's, and namely Kim Jong Il's erratic behaviour. Except maybe Dennis Rodman. Sounds stupid maybe, but ping pong diplomacy worked in China so maybe basketball diplomacy can work there. We're dealing with a dangerous and immature young man who happens to love American basketball. So, as Rodman says ( abd think what you will about him- but he's the only American who's ever talked on a personal level with KJI, that's something) "why not start there?". Send Michael Jordan next time.

My understanding, from comments I have read in South Korean news is that KJI does this to demand direct negotiations with the US. Like Obama said, he 'bangs his spoon on the table'. The scary thing is noone ever knows what he'll do next. I think he's more dangerous than Iran, because his people are isolated and not very educated, many not at all, about the outside world- so there's a huge military in N. Korea brought up on propaganda, cut off almost totally from information -which is not the case in Iran. They are educated people who understand their government and many don't agree with it. I see hope in Iran that change can come from the people and a lesser likelihood that they will initiate something drastic. Iranian people still have more freedoms, and access to information and common sense- as harsh as their government can be- than N.koreans. I don't see the situation as being as dire there. Without information and education, N. Koreans can only believe what they're taught, which isn't much truth at this point ( except for those who manage to sneak listening to a radio signal from the south or from china for example, about the rest of the world. N. Koreans have been brought up to believe, totally convinced because it's all they know, US is an imminent threat, for the past 60 years. Meanwhile US hasn't paid much attention to them because they have no real interests there, but has accumulated other concerns that N. Korean people are not even aware of. They're not aware of anything going on in the world. That's what's scary about them. It's unfortunate, to say the least, that better attempts weren't made much sooner with regard to cultural exchange in N. Korea- that it hadn't been named a priority because opening them up to knowledge should have been the priority over military cat and mouse games- maybe that can still happen. However, they know basketball, so send in the NBA!

Israel cannot withstand one nuclear detonation. America cannot let Israel be the instigators in an attack on Iran. Obama just gave Iran a maximum of one year to back down, or they will taste all of the new bunker busters the US is dying to try out.

Maybe I am naive but I think that Iran is not as irrational as NK.

Iran isn't irratonal. It had democratcally elected government forced out by the US, Britain and France. that was what gave the US a controlling hand over the oilfields. Then they imposed a brutal dictator  as their puppet while they pillaged the country.

That was what brought about a revolution that kicked out the Shah and brought in the present government. The US has never forgiven Iran for that.

If it's okay for Israel to have 250 nuclear bombs, then it's surely okay for Iran to have some. Iraq is far more likely to be attacked by the US than Israel is by anybody.

Is it okay for the US to have nuclear bombs because the US is rational and restrained? Actually, the US has fought more wars over the last fifty years than any other country in the world - and all of them were aggressive. It is also the only country ever to have used nuclear bombs against people.

Guess who scares me most.

The missiles in Alaska and Japan might be there for protection..or they might be part of a game to ramp up tensions and so to make an excuse for an attack on N. Korea.

Do you really think that the US would play this out the same way it did with Iraq, now that most people have caught on to their strategies? I think many now can see how the US uses fear to manipulate the Americans into a frenzy to go to war.

Wouldn't put it past the US to nuke itself and blame it on another country. Of course it would explode in the desert.

Iran and from what I know North Korea are completely different.  From what I understand North Korea is headed by what looks to me as a man with a personality disorder, and thus unpredictable using tranditional political theories.

Iran while it does not have a great governement, power is dispersed among more than one person, in fact more than one group. So alot of what the Iranian leaders say is aimed a their own, and is  political posturing just as much as is that of Isareal and the US. Thus I do not beleive they see war being in their self interest. , but the threat of war, or threatening language  against others is intended to bolster theri power.

North Korea is all alone, no real allies, it is unable to feed it's own, and the repression of its own people creates conditions that make me unablke to understand how they think.

Yes, I agree revjohn. My wife is South Korean, and I have asked her and her family members and some of our Korean friends what they think about North Korea. Not one of them has expressed any genuine fear about their neighbor to the north. Maybe that's just bravado, but I don't think so, especially in the case of my wife. She does feel very sad for the people of North Korea living under the government which they are.

Perhaps South Koreans have something to teach those who live in fear of the enemy, how to live. Those in Europe or North America who fear Islam, and those in Israel fear being wiped out.

Having worked in domestic violence I can say that lack of fear and other reactions often does not  give a complete picture regarding genuine threat.

I do not think it is accurate that there is no real fear.

South Koreans seem to mainly take it in stride, but is it just another day, apathy or that no threat exists? For decades Koreans have heard threats that are over the top and "sea of fire" and such.

Is it like the person who hears vile names and threats of death and just doesn't think they will go that far or that they are just used to hearing it?  It does not mean they won't make good on a threat to kill them or that deep down they do not fear it.

What is the role of desensitization?

They express less worry on the streets and more worry on the internet and as anonymous people. Isn't the same true with downplaying things with family and friends, versus a hotline or a forum?
 

What is public posturing and what is honest?

How does one compare the situtation in the USA, and the actions of their governements against the much different external threats. Specifically there decades long  fears of a communist and than an Islamic fundementalist takeover or attack.

Any clues? 

Considering recent news that there was almost a military coup in N Korea recently, we need to consider that Kim I J may be sharper than we realize.  They are not a credible threat to the US.  They are a credible threat to S Korea just as S Korea is a credible threat to N Korea.  They both have huge armies that have spent the last nearly 60 years preparing for battle with each other.  One out of control lieutenant or captain on either side could provoke a very serious war, just like one pair of lieutenants sitting in a hole in the American prairies in a Minuteman silo, I believe, could decide to launch an American nuclear missile aimed at Russia.

A healthy response is to to decide, if such and such happens, this is what we will do.  Until then, we must get on with the business of living.

If they are not a credible threat to the US then why is the US building more interceptors on the west coast, in Alaska and California? I don't feel too cozy here on the BC west coast- I can only imagine that some South Koreans must be feeling uneasy, if not scared. I think the US needs to change their approach with KJI. Maybe they need psychologists and basketball players on the job- not high level career bureaucrats- because he is not playing their game. Who knows what he's thinking. There has to be a better way to solve this and unfortunately noone knows much about Kim Jong Il and how he'll behave. I know we've go to keep on living and it's not healthy to get too worried, but we don't want it to get much more serious.

Radiation Dosages

xkcd did a good comic graphic on radiation doses

* most of the actual damage to Three Mile Island to public opinion of the nuclear industry; it turned nuclear energy into a blasphemy

What do people think now that Kim J has told all of the embassy staff to leave by April 10th or he cannot guarantee their safety. I have friends who are from South Korea and all of their family are there and they are not worried either. In fact they are planning on travelling home to see their family with their children this summer. There is no way that I would go but they feel very sure that it is absolutely safe. They are good parents and would never out their children at risk. I wonder if their perception is correct or if they have just lived their lives with this insane bluster that it is like the little boy crying wolf - no one believes them anymore.

Just a point. The leader of North Korea is named Kim Jong-Un.

From all that I've been reading from a variety of sources, he's the wild card in this. North Korea has a history of ratcheting up the rhetoric when they feel ignored, or when they see a chance to glorify the leader. So one analysis is that the South Koreans and Americans are engaging in military exercises - which happens every year at this time. The idea (based on past behaviour) is that North Korea will portray this as a threat (which they always do), South Korea and the United States will not attack them (which they never do) and North Korea will claim that the wise leadership of the leader forced them to back down.

But the past may not be the best predictor of the future. Kim Jong-Un is very new, very young and very inexperienced and largely untested. No one knows for sure how far he would go and how far the North Korean military would let him go. Most strategic analysts don't think the North could win a war, so if it became clear that Kim was actually going to go through with his threats, the military might take action against him. Might. North Korea is so isolated and we know so little about its government that it's impossible to say for sure.

Almost certainly North Korea has no long range missiles capable of reaching the United States. Even if they did, they wouldn't get to the United States (or Canada). They be taken down long before by US interceptor missiles. A more serious threat might be against Japan; more serious still against the South. 

Estimates from a variety of sources have placed the most recent North Korean nuclear test at at least 6 kilotons, and possibly up to 10. That's smaller than Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but still powerful enough to create a major disaster if exploded in a populated area.

Again, the questions are whether Kim is serious, and, if he is, whether the North Korean military would let him get away with it, since even if Kim is living in a fantasy land, they must know that a North Korean nuclear attack against anyone is going to invite a massive response.

Yes I know his name just using the J out of convenience - didn't mean any disrespect.

I read an interesting comment on CBC today where the writer's take was basically that we had a very young, untried leader, trying to lead a people who he was not elected to lead but where he inherited the job and he needs to make a stand in order to make himself look good in the eyes of his people. How better than to stand up to the biggest guy on the block - the Americans and threaten them. If they back down (as surely they will have to as the US can't be seen to go to war over some silly rhetoric when it is clear that the country can't follow through with its threat) then Kim Jon-Un looks like a hero to a downtrodden people who really need a hero right now. Also all of this bluster takes his people's mind off what they should be criticizing their government about - food shortages. Nothing like a good war to bring out the patriotism in the populous.

If this writer is correct I may have to rethink my impression of this leader's sanity. I may not like what he is doing but it is not an insane tactic.

It also means that he is really has no intent on launching any missiles

I wouldn't believe that the USA doesn't know what's going on in North Korea. I'm sure they have spies right in the Korean Government and amongst the people. The states are very informed to the point that they are able to manipulate  Kim Jong Un to point the missiles at the US. His lack of experience is a perfect foil.

Think of every good spy novel you've ever read.

Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction!

i remember trying to get through The Spy Who Came in From the Cold in High School and thinking I grokked but then not getting it...it seemed a vast puzzle of a story that evaded my Aristotlean attempts to find 'the truth'...

I'm not at all sure Kim is the wild card in all this - despite the rhetoric.

It's okay for the US to conduct war games every year - war games which are aimed at North Korea? How would the US react if North Korea held war games with Mexico on the Texas border?

Never mind sixty years. What if they did it once?

There is no massive North Korean fleet off the west coast of the US, no massive air power dropping just pretend bombs, There are no North Korean forces ever within thousands of miles of the US.

It is the US that is over there. And it is the US that has the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world.

And Kim is being the reckless provocateur?

North Korea has invaded nobody since the Korean war. The US has, officially and unofficially, carried out almost unbroken and agressive wars in that time.

Who stands to gain from such a war? North Korea? It would disappear from the map.

The US? Well, North Korea would be a key to the US ambition to encircle China - and it might be thought essential to do it now rather than later.

Our news services harp on evils of the rulers of North Korea. And I don't doubt them. But our side, the most murderous in the last fity years, is not without blemish. There have been and are American and British leaders quite as crazy as Kim.

Notice that the US has reponded very publicly to every move Kim has made? Why? If his threats are empty, why bother? Unless, of course, it's to provoke Kim a step further each time.

Of course, any such war would provoke a nuclear war with China. Are there people in the US political and economic leadership crazy enough to do that?

You can bet there are.

I don't think the US's intentions towards China are as you suggest, graeme. They are more intertwined economically with China than maybe they've wanted to call attention to in the past because all parties want to maintain an image of being the strongest at home- meanwhile they all make business deals all the time. China also has an obligation to NK that they need to keep, at least in appearance- they can't just flat out drop their ties with NK- because they don't want trouble from NK, while also working with others to de-escalate the crisis. The military exercises, I believe, are mostly posturing from the US- with some defense just in case. I don't think they expected this. However, that's a dangerous game particularily in a volitile situation dealing with a quite unknown and unpredictable and young unseasoned dictator like Kim Jong Un. We're seeing signs that the military posturing is being recognized as dangerous and that a war would be in noones interest on any level, particularly a human level. I have read that the US has backed off from some of their testing. I hope they continue to 'stand down' and show willingness to cool the emotions and talk this out. It would be the 'strongest' thing to do. With tensions running this high everyone becomes more of a wildcard. China has rightly called for calm from all sides. Everyone already knows the damage that can be done. Everyone already knows the US has a pwerful military. Noone needs reminding there, so I don't know why the exercises haven't paused because they only provoke the North Koreans who see those exercises as a threat, not just an exercise- because that's how they've seen things for 60 years. It's culturally engrained in them and their government reinforces their fears- and even if much of the exercises have become just standard procedure as a show of solidarity with the South, they don't look that way to NK who is so isolated. It would be nice to see the US help lower the tempterature though. None of these players are stupid (KJU is becoming unhinged, I think he is a wildcard, but is not stupid either). Hopefully China and US, will realize that keeping up appearances of being foes, because they aren't really (a lot of that's been posturing rhetoric too) won't help this crisis. I think they are coming around.

It's too bad the US has chosen not to understand who Kim Jong Un was. If they were a social worker working with a troubled, dilinquent youth from a very insular and dysfunctional family, who had learned some harmful behaviours- they would need to get to know that individual in order to bring out potential for positive change. But, to understand this new idividual as if he's not a different person from his father and grandfather would be a mistake. They also couldn't help the person become less violent unless they displayed good role modelling behaviours. Even if it isn't intantaneous, trying a new aporoach would be better than what they have been doing.

I think the folly of war games might be becoming clearer, at least beginning to, to the world in general.

I didn't say that it was OK. I simply noted that there's been a predictable historical pattern at play in the region for a long time, and that Kim Jong-Un's presence is the thing that makes this less predictable.

I would equally argue that the presence of the US  (and particularly its reactions in the present crisis) are what make it unpredictable. I am uncomfortably reminded of the lying and brainwashing that has happened before. Remember Iraq's stockpile of "weapons of mass destruction".

As to the US interest in economic ties to China, or course. It has had such an interest for over a century. So did the British and French. That's why the latter invaded China in the nineteenth century. Economic interest is why the US invaded Iraq.

Countries want economic ties. But they want them on their own terms. Belgium wanted economic ties with Congo. That's why is killed them by the millions, and made slaves of the survivors.

The British wanted economic ties to South Africa (to get its gold). That's why it fought the Boer War.

US business wants China as a market and a source of cheap labour. It doesn't want China as a competitor. That's why the bulk of the US fleet is now in the Pacific. That's why Australia recently became a major US base. That's why the US  military in The Phillipines has been enlarged.  That's why the US still maintains major bases in the Pacific.

The US is a great power in decline. China is a great power on the rise.

Major American figures have made their conclusion clear. Read Project for the New American Century. That document is the guiding principle of american foreign policy.

--it states that the US must act now to maintain and spread its military dominance because military dominance means economic dominance. That means China and Russia have to be bottlled up - at least. It means all of Africa and the middle east must come under US control.

And time is very short, indeed. All that keeps the American dollar alive is the fact that US military dominance makes it possible for the US to insist that its dollar be the standard for foreign trade. Take that standard away, and the American dollar is wallpaper. The world is already drifting away from the American dollar. The US has to act fast.

That is what makes this a crisis.

And why does China have to protect North Korea? Nations don't protect each other just because they're nice. An American conquest of North Korea would be a direct threat to China, itself. (Check back to the Korean War. China intervened precisely because General McArthur made it clear he intended to use North Korea as a base to attack China.)

The US organized and supplied the slaughter of a quarter million mayan peasants in Guatemala - precisely because it had an economic interest in Guatemala. It displaced an elected president in Haiti because it had an economic interest in Haiti. It has maintained a hatred for Cuba because Cuba has threatened American economic dominance.

The US has very strong motives to hit North Korea. It might be able to get away with it now because China's nuclear arsenal isn't yet big enough. Or it might not.

According to our press reports, the US is entirely in the right, and Kim is crazy.

According to our press reports, Saddam had stacks of weapons of mass destruction, and the Guatemala slaughter never even happened.

guatemala, for those who don't know what graeme means

We are beginniing to see reports of American politicians saying that an attack on North Korea may be necessary.  A matter of self-defence, of course.

It's easier for the States to attack than to finally sign a peace treaty with North Korea.

I just deleted a long post. I thought a lot about. I was disagreeing with graeme. I just want to say greame, that even if parts of your theories abou what happened on the past are correct- that doesn't matter now. What matters now is how they deal with it now. China and US's relationship is different today than it was two months ago- and we had all best hope for things to cool down and reasonable solutions to prevail. Regardless of theories. So lets think of some solutions. I propose, I hope, everyone talks and cools down as a first step. I hope the media explores postive solutions to this- interviews people with good ideas- that positive solutions make their way into the public consciousness going forward- with regard to this and other world problems, and everyone tones down their fearmongering also. It blocks solutions and keeps us stuck in the worst of the past and sets us toward a bleak future. So for every critique we mention- mention a better idea along with it so we don't stay stuck in old bad ideas headed for nowhere- but so we live in hope of something better.

The Chinese American relationship has not changed at all. The US has wanted trade involvement with China for over a century. That's why it sent troops to help put down the Boxer rebellion. that's why it supported a drug lord named Chiang Kai-shek. That's why it now supports Taiwan.

What it does not want is a China that is a military or economic competitor.

Already, we're hearing of leading american political figures saying it's time for a "pre-emptive strike" on North Korea.

If, as many people say, there is nothing of substance behind the north Korean threats, then why does the US respond to them with increasingly threatening moves? That just makes the situation worsel.

And that suggests the US wants to make it worse.

And if the US is on such very good terms with China, why has it been moving so many troops and ships into areas that him in China?

Read Project for the New American Century. It was largely written by the people who became the Bush White House - and they are still influential. And it clearly calls for military domination to extend economic control.

You can also expect some very dirty work in the Venezuelan election. That's a prime target for the new American Century.

There could be something to NK's threats. There likely is. We don't know exactly what it is but the whole region is nervous and noone wants an eratic NK making dangerous threats. I don't think anyone wants a war in this situation. I am convinced this crisis escalation was unplanned (at least not consciously) by any of them. Not this time. Russia has even stated that they are in agreement with the G8 nations on the matter of NK and are urging calm. The US backed off one of their missle tests so as not to provoke NK any further. They should have thought of that sooner and looked at found new (and peaceful) ideas to work on the NK issue sooner, met with other concerned parties sooner, instead of carrying on business as usual as if it's bluster- but as of now- noone wants a war except maybe some hawkish senators that always did but maybe they fail to grasp that real war is possible, is in noone's interest, and this is not an election campaign. Many figures are also calling for calm and dialogue. This was a wildcard they didn't expect from the new leader because noone knows him. Noone knows his intentions. Noone knows anything about him except who his father and grandfather were. There's no point in us arguing about it though. What good will we do if we don't talk about solutions? We've got to think peace and urge the leaders to do the same. Dialogue is crucial. That was my point.

Project for the New American Century -- fun docu; finally, g_d getting its act together to help mankind globally -- the culmination of centuries of wisdom and effort, now in the right time & the right place...

i can't wait :3

Spent some time in N, Korea in the 50[s...What a beautiful place!

(Doing guard duty, I watched a beautiful water fall in a beautiful mountain...when I relief came I said "Isn't that beautiful?"

His reply: "Yer out of yer F----ing mind!")

Some people (many) just don't think as I do.

There has been so much saber rattling coming out of North Korea, it is hard to take them seriously.