Can I make my prediction on Monday as long as the polls are still open? This thing's just too up in the air right now to even have a strong sense of what's going to happen.

Based on seats now, which was recorded as below in the newspaper . . .

Current Seats:

Conservative: 143

Liberal: 77

NDP: 36

Bloc: 47

Independent: 2

Vacant: 3

My prediction, or rather more of a guess is (cause I'm not really "up" on a lot of this politics stuff):

Conservative: 137

Liberal: 72

NDP: 51

Bloc: 43

Independent: 5

I am provisionally predicting an even more prounced east-west  rift and another minority government. 

I'm going out on a bit of a limb and one that might get my head bitten off around here:

A bare majority for the Conservatives. The NDP surge (if it's real and if it keeps up until the 2nd) is, in the long run, probably going to hurt the Bloc and the Liberals more than the Conservatives

I'm thinking something like:

Conservatives     159 (majority = 157)

Liberals                66

NDP                     40

Bloc                      42

Independent           1

I'd love to put a seat or two in for the Greens but I don't see it happening at this point and will be pleasantly surprised if it does. My one Independent could be May (since with only 1 seat she'd be sitting as an independent) or Guergis (I've come around to her side and would love to see her "stick it to The Man").

And I'm with Mike on the East-West split. It's been a factor in Canadian politics since at least the late seventies and it's only getting more pronounced with time.

Mendalla

I am predicting that my riding, Victoria, will go NDP again this time around. What's harder to call are the ridings bordering mine - Saanich - Gulf Islands and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. SGI is the riding where Gary Lunn is competing against Elizabeth May. My prediction is that Gary Lunn will win again, but that it will be very close. My hope is that I am wrong and that Elizabeth May will win. EJF is also hard to call. Their long term MP, Keith Martin, has stepped down, leaving the seat wide open. He was a Liberal, but switched parties several times (Reform and Conservative), so his popularity seems to be based on his personality and not on his party. It seems to be shaping up to be a battle between the Conservative and NDP candidates - both of whom have run campaigns there in the past. I am predicting (and hoping for) and NDP victory there.

Overall I think it will be yet another Conservative minority - this time with the NDP as official opposition.

I was trying to remember if the NDP has ever had official opposition status - does anyone here know if that has happened?

I think the political reality on the ground has so changed that it is impossible to accurately forecast the results in areas outside Quebec. Based on my good estimation of 50 to 60 seats for the NDP in Quebec, I will guess 115 NDP 115 conservative 6 bloc 60 Liberal 1 Green Regardless if the conservative or the NdP win the most seats, we will be seeing Prime Minister Jack soon. The NDP needs the support of the Liberals, as together according to all predictions they will hold 40 to sixty more seats than the Torys.

The NDP has nevr been the opposition before, nor have they won more than 40 to 50 seats.

Conservative minority - bloc losing most of its seats - liberals and Ndp close and one green ( may)

My wild guess.

125 Conservatives (They have the money and organization to get their votes out)

90 New Democrats (Won't have the organization to get enough supporters to vote in some close elections; 2 seats in Edmonton)

66 Liberals (Their organization will get out enough of their supporters to win some close votes; they may win one in Calgary -- we have three MPs with terrible records)

25 Bloc

2 Greens

Within the next year, leadership campaigns for Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc.

The NCC will be busy preparing their next puppet for the leadership of the Conservative Party.

And if these predictions don't turn out to be accurate, you can always try again in two years.

 OK. Here goes:

Conservative - 140

Liberal - 73

NDP - 68

Bloq - 26

Green - 1

It's a crapshoot, because things are very much in flux.

I think the NDP will win seats in Quebec but not as many as some are predicting. They don't have the organization in the province to pull a vote that has no long-term commitment to them and, thus, is less likely to vote than long time supporters of other parties. I also don't sense a big NDP jump in Ontario. In fact, I think the Liberals might pick up a handful of seats in Ontario to conpensate a bit for what they might lose in Quebec and BC. I think Elizabeth May will finally win a seat. Both Andre Arthur and Helena Guergis will lose as Independents.

Hi Mendalla,

My predictions for May 2 are:

Conservative Minority with 141 seats (-2)

Liberals in opposition with 73 seats (-4)

Bloc Quebecois with 51 seats (+2)

NDP with 42 seats (+5)

Green with 1 seat (+1)

While there is an NDP surge I don't see the NDP being a close second in many ridings across the country  I suspect ithey will eat into Liberal votes in Quebec giving the Bloc some closely contested seats.  They might also steal a seat or two from the Liberals.

The funny thing about the %point surge is that you could quadruple NDP numbers in several western ridings and they would still finish in the basement.

There are several ridings in southern ON where the Conservatives and Liberals are close.  I don't expect those seats to switch since it is the Consevatives currently on top and the Liberals closely in second place.  NDP surge might pull from the Liberal voter base I doubt it will touch the Conservatives.

Grace and peace to you.

John

Grace and peace to you.

John

My prediction: the Sith will gain control of Parliament

SO are you predicting a win for the CPC or the NDP????

Of course the Jedi will win out in the end....

It doesn't matter. The Sith are behind the scenes manipulating the whole situation so they control all of them. Mwahahahaha!

Mendalla

What the leaders were really thinking at the debate. 

(warning - some bad language)

I  don't want to do   #s but I'd love to see the conservatives down lots of seats and the liberals and NDP up quite a few seats-I hope my riding will stay NDP-part of the orange surge

And 2 green seats would be awesome

 NDP 111

liberals 77

Bloc 21

Cons 98

Green 1

there will be leadership changes in the Cons, Libs, and Bloc.

The Liberals (under Rae) will join with the  NDP. ;The Bloc will become increasingly Fascist and irrelevant.

The Cons will reorganize and regroup, moving to the center with the Neo Cons losing their influence.

I will win the 6-49,

Christ will come again in glory to judge both the quick and the dead.

Based on Judd's final prediction...

Greens = 308

Purgatory = 308 NDP

Hell = 308 Cons & Libs - the other half even the devil wouldn't put up with

The problem with political jokes is they get elected.

Henry Cate, VII

You forgot to mention the Leafs winning the Cup next year.

And unicorns farting rainbows.

Actually, I think unicorns farting rainbows has a higher probability of happening than the Leafs winning the Cup.

Mendalla

Next year??? How about anytime in the next 100 years???

LEafs--is that some sort of hockey team?  I don't see them on the schedule this week!

Woo Judd n Tyra!

My prediction:

D, I, J, S & M will be found in a slow snog 5-way by the Timmies in Tinseltown, Toronto.  They will be the talk of the town, tonight.  Where it will be revealed that they are all travellers from the 10th dimension, called the ORZ, and that they hope we are **HAPPY CAMPERS**

Other than that, a Green sweep, PM, who will outlaw all ways of hurting ourselves and hurting the ground...she will suffer a fatal unicorn accident when up in Churchill, where a polar bear will 'accidentally' sit on her.

No one will come to her rescue.

But she will be reincarnated, as this was an unbirther furry in disguise...

The Green PM coming back as something MUCH prettier...

and much hungrier...

Just like that awsome Angel story arc, where the Messiah comes back, really bringing Peace to the World...:3

In other news, Pan will get a group of evangelical atheists drunk on process moonshine and Clifton Joseph.

Looks like we are well and truly fucked.

Remember to use enough lube, RevMatt :3

Just watching Iggy's speech -- classy :3  Though, he seems to be one of those who talks of something called a 'centre'.  Don't we all hold behaviours that are Liberal toward some things and Conservative toward other things?  I guess that is another way of saving one's brand?

Scottie softens the blow

Alex - it may be better this way in the longer term, if the Cons don't do too much damage in the meantime.

Count Iggy would have been a classier Leader of the Opposition than Jack "Velvet Touch" Layton.  He is sort of embarrassing and creepy now.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Rp2G12el1ro/Tb9ipF9l3xI/AAAAAAAADnA/cwwUdIh27U0/s1600/whorehouse+jack+busted%2521.png

Oh brother

Well, in terms of prediction, I was spot on in Quebec. I just did not see what was going on in Ontario. However I did not claim to. S what does ontario want?

I got the Conservative majority right, but should have reversed the opposition parties. Oh well, that's what I get for making my prediction a week before the election. In 20-whatever, I'll wait until the weekend before. Certainly did not see the Bloc and Liberal meltdowns, though the former was looking dicey in the final polls (but after my prediction).

Mendalla

I believe a Sithocracy is what we need. And anybody who disagrees gets some force lightning....TAX FREE!!!!!

Hmmm. If Harper = Palpatine, does that make John Baird Vader? A little too crass and obnoxioius I think. Tony Clement might be better at the job. And then is Layton Bail Organa or Mace Windu. He's more the former I think.

Casting politicians in a production of Star Wars : Fall of the Republic could be a fun exercise, eh?

Mendalla

Like Matt I am worried about the future of Canada.   While it is good the NDP did so well, there are deep questions - given the number in Quebec - deep questions because they only increased their vote from the Broadbent time by 14.   What pressures will we have to deal with?

In listening to the speeches, Iggy did the best, and Layton gave the right words, yet there was a problem - I am NDP yet his speech did not move me.  Of course I am fearful about Harper and the future of Canada.

Yep. And Stephane Dion would make an excellent C-3PO.

I feel sad and anxious today, as well as disgusted that some of our local MPs are of very poor quality, but still got around 70% of the popular vote.  At least something like 4 Conservative cabinet ministers were retired.

Hi folks - I feel really truly sick.  Unbelievable.  I'm shocked at the shallowness of voting behaviour.  Such a small turnout again, and they pick the fraudsters, liars, arrogant SOB's.  Matt's comment echos my own.

I admit Quebec surprised me. I really didn't think the NDP would pull all that vote out. I see potential problems, though - for the NDP and the country.

For the NDP. Aside from Quebec they didn't make huge strides anywhere (except maybe a few seats in Atlantic Canada.) Take away the Quebec seats and all they had was a pretty good (by NDP/third party standards) showing. They didn't win many additional seats in Ontario and split the vote in some ridings to give them to Conservatives. Ontario is very hesitant about the NDP. The new caucus may cause problems. It's very inexperienced, and although this is often overlooked and forgotten the NDP doesn't generally give its MPs much freedom. Like MPs from other parties, they're expected to vote the party line on everything. But how many "loose cannons" were elected in this NDP surge in Quebec? How effective and united and credible will they be as the Official Opposition? And if they have problems they'll damage their credibility in both Quebec and the rest of the country. Based on last night, they have difficulty winning additional seats outside Quebec, and now they likely have nowhere to go but down in Quebec.

For the country. The demise of the Bloc means the sovereignist movement will centre on Quebec City and Quebec politics. There seems a good chance that the PQ will win the next provincial election, and a Harper majority government with little representation in Quebec and with an ideology that in general doesn't match Quebec's outlook will be a very easy target for Pauline Marois to say "the feds don't care about us. They don't represent us. We need to get out." This "federalist victory" in the Province of Quebec could well be an illusion.

My feelings as well Steven - it is how I see the results- it is why as a NDPer I have mixed feelings - We, in one sense, did not do as well as the seat number shows.  Quebec is such an interesting situation.

One thing about having the NDP as the main federalist party in Quebec, is that on many issues Quebec will have different federalist options, to replace the either or approach of federalism.