This is exciting - both a Toronto and now an Ontario election. Provincially, I believe a PC minority will be next up.

Hudak has to be pleased that Ford dissed him. You couldn't pick up a better enemy in most of the GTA, at least.

The gas plant stuff has me completely distructful of the Liberals, whether Dalton is still there or not. I have to hear more from the NDP and Conservatives. I'm just not up on the particulars yet.

Am I correctly reading June 12 as the election date?  That's pretty quick - and it's my birthday - and I'll be in Newfoundland ... desperate to vote & probably not able to do so. 

Can you vote in advance polls, Corolla?

there should be advance polls. maybe you can vote in one of those...?

For someone who doesn't follow Ontario politics very closely, who are the players/party leaders and what are the issues?

I read that Wynne wants to start a provincial equivalent of the Canada Pension Plan that other provinces could join in if they wanted to because the federal government won't change the CPP the way the provinces want.  There was also something some time ago about Wynne suing someone for libel regarding supposed destruction of files.  Are those a couple of the issues?

Hi Mendalla,

Agreed.  No party has been particularly stand out.

I expect that you are right and then we go right back to the politics of posture rather than the politics of something as mundane as governance.

Grace and peace to you.

John

I have already been volunteering 2 nights a week for the past two weeks in Ottawa Center, phoning supporters and asking them to take signs, donate and volunteer in case an election was called.

It reminded me of two things.  One is that Ontario ()doubly so for Ottawa) is likely the only province where federal politics is as important or more so than provincial.  many people I talked to when informed that the gvt may fall in Ontario, are surprised or think we are talking about the feds.   SO as in other provincially elections, but doubly so, the election campaign and the debates will determine the outcome.  And with 3 parties  anything is possible.

Also  I once worked in a riding which the NDP won with 34%, with the other two parties being only a hundred or so votes behind.  So shifts in the votes of 5 or 6 % make a huge difference in the number od seats a party will win.

The second is how Ontario like many provinces usually votes for a different party than the one in power federally at the provincial level.  There is a lot of disgust at the Harper Tories and that will hurt the provincial Tories.  At another time the Tories would be natural winners, but the Harper gvt is dragging them down

The Liberals have a very likeable leaders, who is their strongest asset. (if they win it will be largely seen as her win)  However after many years in power the Liberals are facing corruption scandals, (including the chief of staff of the former Premier being recently charged) They have also wasted billions and billions of dollars on various private/public partnerships driving up our deficits while many of these projects have been a failure, while their executives are paid millions, and they hire their friends.  (Presto, Orange,)

Add to this the chief of staff who was charged did so in order to cover up a scandal at Ontario Hydro after the Liberals cancelled a gas plant during the last election, costing taxpayers around 1 billion dollars.   Rubbing salt into the wounds caused  Hydro Ontario. Ontario already pays the highest rates in Canada. (more than even PEI, and twice what Quebec pays) While some of this is due to decisions in the seventies to go nuclear, much of it is also due to the Liberal gvt building too much capacity which results in Ontario selling hydro at a loss and at  rates 1/2 of the consumer, to the USA.

That is my thought, too, Alex esp. given how closely Hudak has been tying his cart to Harper's. OTOH, the Libs aren't exactly squeaky clean, either. The gas plant scandal and various spin-off issues from it may stick enough to let Hudak have at least a minority.

I'd love to say the NDP has a chance here but the only way that I can see that happening is if (a) they get a huge turnout of their traditional vote and (b) somehow pull a huge chunk of the Liberal Party's left wing away from Wynne. It's not impossible but I wouldn't put the odds very high.

Basically, Hudak and Howarth both have core support that they need to get out to the polls and then each needs to figure out how to carve up the Liberal vote in his/her favour.

Mendalla

This election really should be the Tories to win.  But their leader is really unlikable and very right wing. HE even has suggested in the past that Ontario should be a right to work jurisdiction, and was forced to back track almost immediately. Ontario likes their Tories red. MIke Harris and Harper has turned off any appetite for right wingers. 

 However due to the way the vote is spread, and the Liberal problems, they have the greatest chances of winning, even if it is a minority gvt.  

THE NDP is not as strong in Ontario as they are in the rest of the country. Ontario dislike left wingers, especially in the area around Toronto,and the Ottawa area.

However unlike in BC and elsewhere the leader has succeeded in pulling the party to the centre, and is campaigning on a no new taxes or fees platform, for the middle class or for small business.    This will be a very powerful message in the debates.  However it has also alienated some of the traditional NDP types, who may sit out this election and not volunteer.  Its a gamble for the Leader Andrea Horwarth to see if running a campaign designed to appeal to non traditional NDP voters will work. She may loose seats or if it works she will pick up enough seats in the Toronto area to form a minority government. 

I think the NDP strategy is to go after Red tory voters.  The Liberals have gone so far left that their left wing voters are unlikely to abandone them.  Meanwhile there is a large chunk of Red Tories who are disgusted with what the right wing Tries have done, policy wise, and how REd tories have been ignored or treated with utter contempt.   Federally these REd Tories are going to both the Liberals (David Crombie (a Mulroney Cabinet minister) has endorsed  the federal Liberals, but provincial they may be unable to vote Liberal.  ALso Red Tories can put the NDP over the Liberals in Toronto and it's suburbs, while the tories have no xhance of winning those seats, as their great hope has imploded (Rob Ford)

Hi guys,

I've been reading some details about Wynne's new proposed provincial pension plan . Annual contributions would be matched by employers,  with low income workers being exempt. I'm not at all sure it will fly among the general public.

Wynne is very likeable but the party has to go. Too many scandal and wasted money. E health, gas plants, orange, all day jk/sk costing billions, health care that has not improved.......and this pension idea is totally stupid.

The province has suffered terribly from job and manufacturing loss. In many aspects because of the sky rocketing energy costs. The green energy initiatives ,put in place by the former premier, who seems to be "he who cannot be named" has cost us personally and economically through companies deserting ontario.

HudK is not as personable but deserves a chance to show he can trim government costs. Has lots of white papers already out there about creating jobs

NDP have. Very personable leader but no policies. I am actually not sure why she decided to not support the liberals as the budget they proposed was totally up her alley.

Sadly, this is taking the heat off the mayor of toronto. Makes me wonder if he knew and decided this was a good month to be away

One thing I really wish is that Harper would keep his f*ing nose out of Ontario poliltics. With Quebec, he was pretty discreet about it until the sovereignty issue blew up (which, let's face it, has huge ramifications outside Quebec) but here he waded right in less than 24 hours after the writ dropped. I realize that he and Timmy are buddies but still, the feds are technically supposed to stay out of provincial politics and I'm not sure he is really going to help the PCs by sticking his nose in where it isn't wanted.

Mendalla

Do people think that Harper and other federal Conservatives are helping or hurting the provincial conservativesn when they interfer?

Could do a bit of both. Shores up the base and makes sure they get out and support Hudak but could also make centrist voters who may not be enamoured of Harper a bit nervous of Hudak and give Wynne and Horwath a focus for getting their vote out (we have to beat Harper's lackey). After all, we have a longstanding tradition in Ontario of electing the party that ISN'T in power in Ottawa and, while Hudak may have a real opportunity to break that pattern here, he certainly does not need voters being reminded of the benefits of doing so (ie. having a provincial government that is not kissing Federal a**).

Mendalla

And what about other federal politicians, like Trudeau or Muclaur, do you think they will get involved and will it help or hinder. Trudeau helped out in Nova Scotia and it seed to help.

Interesting Alex. I expect to see Mulcaire stomping for the NDP but I wonder about Trudeau.

The liberal brand in Ontario is so damaged with scandal I wonder if he will want to keep clear.

I actually think, for his sake, he should avoid getting involved. I can't see what good will come (for him). If Wynne loses badly, he will look weak. If she wins it will still be presented as her win and that she is a friendly, sincere person.

I don't think Trudeau can afford to have any of the mcguinty scandals, and there are many, linked to him, even slightly.

Trudeau also has a problem if the Liberals win. In addition to the problem that all federal parties have when their party forms the provincial gvt, (people tend to vote for anorther party fed/prov) There is the problem of Wynne budget, which goe against his philosophy of being more conservative on economics while being socially liberal. If she wins it will hurt Trudeaus rebranding .  Howevr if she loses, he can use it to keep his own people in check as he rebrands the federal party.

I bet we will see a lot of candiadte x is part of the leaders team, instead of being part of the sx party.  

AN interesting thing is happening in the federal byelection to replace Chow. Something I have never seen before. The Liberal candidate's signs and literature do not mention the Liberal party, and he is using NDP Orange.  Has anyone seem a candidate use another parties colours?

Hi Mendalla,

The scandals were there in the last election and if memory serves Hudak lost to McGuinty.  Wynne is much more likeable and Hudak and company appear pretty desperate.

Since then Hudak threw his attack dog Peter Sherman under the bus for actually abiding by the rules around travel allowance.  What does it say when you stab your right-hand man in the back for playing by the rules?  It doesn't scream competent leader to me.  

Then there was yesterday at The MetalWorks recording studio where he appears to have shot himself in the foot and before that a question regarding the latest Rob Ford audio-tape where he very simply could have condemned the bigotry.  It would have been the fattest and juciest softball lobbed his way all year and . . . . he whiffed on it.

And then, why not claim that Wynne was the mastermind of some skullduggery.  No evidence is necessary.  Just claim that Wynne organized the gas plant cover up.  Libel, shmibel . . .Apparently the PC's believe they have a moral obligation to engage in immorality.

So . . . Hudak brings nothing new to the table.  

Horwath, taking a page out of the Hudak playbook decides to lead off with the allegation that Wynne plans to privatize the TTC (that will really play well in ThunderBay or Punkydoodles Corners).

And then, knowing that an election is imminent the NDP campaign starts with we are still listening we'll get around to a platform later.

No rush.  Leadership always comes up from behind.

I'm very unimpressed with the Liberals and do not think that they have demonstrated an ability to actually govern.

Which means that come time to cast my ballot it will be me choosing between rocks and hard places.

Ontario is so screwed.

Grace and peace to you.

John

V John

Yes we knew about the gas plant but not nearly enough. We didn't know about the actual cost, we didn't know about the lies, we didn't know about the staffers boyfriend IT guy who came I in and wiped hard drives.

The issue is whether people believe Kathleen Wynne was totally out of the loop or not

Hi lastpointe,

If we have been paying attention at all we would have known A) it wasn't going to be cheap to cancel the contract and B) whatever figure the government gave as an estimate was going to balloon by the time of the eventual payout.

It doesn't seem to be a party problem.

It just seems to be the way government operates.

We may not have know what the lies were.  We knew we were being lied to.  We aren't that naive.  Nor are the Liberals the only ones who lie.  

Again, that doesn't seem to be a party problem

It just seems to be the way governments operate.

Or tried to as the case may be.  And that is the coverup keeping us from knowing who knew what when.

Baloney.  

Hudak is claiming she called the shots.  After months of going after McGuinty and getting nowhere he has decided it was Wynne in charge and all he has gotten out of that is a lawsuit.

Grace and peace to you.

John

I don't agree john.

Yes everyone knew it was going to be expensive. As I recall at first is was going to be $40,000,000 wasted. Not like that is a small amount but did anyone expect it to be over a billion?

I have no idea who or what or why. No one really does.

Was mcguinty and his group calling the shots and keeping all the senior cabinet in the dark. Maybe. Maybe not

But to me that is only the latest in really big missteps by this government.

E health
Orange
All day jk/sk
Gas plants
Ohip tax
Family day
Caving to teachers unions

The list goes on and on.

Not that the others have much to offer either but at least Hudak is talking about jobs.

Ontario has gone only downhill under mcguinty and unfortunately for Wynne she has to take responsiblity for that. It was her party and she was in cabinet and had opportunity to change things

Hi lastpointe,

The reason why it is so expensive is because government contracts have big fat penalty clauses in place for when the Government backs out of projects.  Why?  Well it isn't really their money so who cares?

Well yes he is.

Yesterday he visits a recording studio made possible by arts grants only to have the owner who invited him chastize him about voting against the same grants in the budget.

Today he visits a factory that is doing well and sings its praises oblivious to the fact that it got corporate welfare from Ottawa.

Who is picking his spots and setting him up to deliver a message almost completely opposite to the one that made those spots possible?

Agreed.  We have gone downhill.

Can Hudak or Horwath reverse direction?

Well, he doesn't seem to know where he is or what message to deliver and she is still listening.

Ontario is so totally boned.

Grace and peace to you.

John

Apparently the government didn't need to pay those penalties' it was a choice. That was one of the things that got us to 1.3 billion.

I agree that the choices are not clear.

I do think Wynne is a nice person.

But so far her answers seems to be borrow more and spend more and that doesn't t work for me.

However time will tell

Hi lastpointe,

We can't get away with that in our household either.

That said, we couldn't take a voluntary pay cut and still manage the bills which is what Hudak's cut taxes message means.

We'll have less revenue to pay a growing debt load.

I don't know how that hasn't been paying off handsomely for the congregations all across the United Church since it is such a winning formula.

Grace and peace to you.

John

According to this analysis at http://www.threehundredeight.com/search/label/Ontario.  The CTv Poll released last Friday is more significant than has been reported.  CTV announced only the percentage of people's intentions. From that they project a Libersl minority, with the possibilitiy of the other two parties forming a minority gvt.

Howver the theehundredeight.com web site say that if you account for who is likely to vote (for example people over 50 are more likely to vote than those under thirty. ) The results are radically different.

The CTV polls assumes that both groups vote in equal numbers. Howevr 308 re-did the numbers based on who is likely to vote, and they say the poll predicts a PC majority with the Liberals and NDP fighting it out for 2nd place.  

Of course the poll was done at the beging of the campaign, and things may change based on the campaign. Including the fact that since the poll was down the PC leader promoised to lay of 100,000 public sector employees.

And I predict the campighn will see numbers move once the debate or debates are held. 

Up here in Ottawa, there not much movement. We have a political scene that is unaffected by province wide trends. For example when the NDP won, Ottawa was left out of the trend with the NDP only winning 1 seat east of Kingston,(and a seat they had held for 12 yeasr prior)

SO I am looking forwad to hearing what other WC membrs are thinking or seeing in other parts of Ontario.  I only talk to one person in the reat of Ontario (as oppose to 5 or so people I talk to in Quebec who fill me in on whats happening) So I am totally dependant on media and blogs, and in my experices they just repeat eaxh other, whereas if some tells me they know someone who  voted for x last time, but is switching to y, that along with similar reports is more informative than what the experts in the media and other political geeks say or think

Hi All,

Here in Brant we have running:

Dave Levac (Liberal) Incumbent.

Dave has been the speaker of the house since the last Provincial Election.  Both the PC and NDP party have alleged that Levac was threatened and/or bribed to change a key ruling after finding then energy minister MP Chris Bentley in contempt of Parliament for not releasing all documents related to the gas plant scandal.

The ruling stood which means that either the threats were insufficient or the bribes were insufficient.  Unless it means that Mr. Levac has that rare political attribute of integrity.  Or, perhaps more accurately, it means that opposition party members don't expect to be held accountable for many of the allegations they make.

At any rate Dave has represented the riding since June 3, 1999

Phil Gillies (PC

Phil has the distinction of being the man to break the longtime NDP stranglehold on the riding of Brant way back in 1981.  A narrow re-election in 1985 was followed by an electoral trouncing in 1987.

My most memorable Phil Gillies political memory was the embarrassment he brought to the city for a jerk comment made in the provincial legislature.  Apparently a Liberal Member of Italian heritage was speaking.  His thick accent notable Phil decided to yell, "translation please!"  This resulted in an admonition from the Speaker of the house and an apology from Phil.

Oh yes, Phil was also instrumental in Brantford becoming the first community in Ontario to ban Shark Fin soup (despite the fact nobody sold it here).  

Phil is also creditted with being one of the first PC MPPs to work for LGBT rights in the province of Ontario.

Alex Felsky (NDP)

Alex Felsky is a first-time candidate for the NDP.  My knowledge of Ms. Felsky is limited to the NDP insider who lives in our home.  I note that long before the election was called the party decided that the NDP insider who lives in our home was not fit enough to work on the election team.

Somebody was unwilling to swallow the Kool-aid and thought that the emphasis on lactation consultants at the local hospital, while important was not as important as a plan to deal with unemployment in the riding.

So . . . .don't look for an NDP lawn sign on our lawn this time around.

Rob Ferguson (Libertarian) 

I know nothing about this fellow other than last time around he ran for the Family Coalition Party and they snubbed him at nominations this time around.

Ken Burns (Green)

No.  Not the PBS documentarian.  Ken likes solar energy and thinks that the gravel extraction rates charged by the Province of Ontario are way, way, way to low.  He says $0.11 is too low for a ton of gravel and should be roughly $3.22 per ton.

We may also see another run by John Turmel who actually holds the Guiness World Record for elections contested.

For more on Mr. Turmel you can visit his site:

http://johnturmel.com/

By observation here in the riding I have seen more Gillies signs than Felsky signs and fewer Levac signs.  Not that it means anything.  Most of the riding will probably be voting with hands to nose.

Grace and peace to you.

John

Tim Hudak is Mike Harris 2.0 and Ontario is still scarred from that "reign of terror". If he gets voted in, it's going to be even worse, IMO

In my riding (London North Centre), we have:

Deb Mathews (Lib) - having served in Education and Health, Deb is easily one of Wynne's most experienced (and fire-tested) cabinet ministers.

Nancy Branscombe (PC) - city councillor jumping to provincial politics

Judy Bryant (NDP) - ditto

Salim Mansur (Freedom) - controversial columnist for the Free Press (aka The London Sun).

Kevin Labonte (Green) - I know nothing about him.

So far, Mathews has been straight out of the gate with signs popping up and getting out to wave at cars at the intersection near my home. Twice. Labonte has some signs up. We have had visits to London from Howarth and Hudak. Otherwise, a rather quiet campaign.

I haven't seen much analysis, but I suspect that if the Liberals remain in power, Mathews will keep the seat. If they collapse, then it is hard to say. I'm not overfond of either of the councillors running to replace her (indeed, I'm not overfond of our municipal government, period) and Mansur does not appeal so I'm likely headed to Green. Again.

Mendalla

On election night I shall stay at home and bake for my family a lovely lemon pie.

I wonder if Ken realizes just how little gravel a ton really is. Or how many other industries and public infrastructure activities rely on a supply of gravel.

Hi Adzgari,

I think Ken's primary issue is the (pardon the pun) rock bottom price paid for gravel.

He does not appear to be anti-gravel.

Grace and peace to you.

John

Whoo-hooo!

John Turmel just filed his candidacy papers.  While I suspect he will simply add to his alredy impressive Guiness Book Record he is entertaining at debates.

Grace and peace to you.

John

It was an exciting day in Ottawa. The NDP leader was here, the same day a bunch of elderly left wingers released a letter attacking her for being too right wing and defeating the liberal budget.

Althrough as Andrew Coyne mentioned, after such a letter from such people, he and others are considering voting NDP for the first time.   

Time will tell, however it is a melodrama that is making the campaign tension filled and risked filled for the NDP.

I am certainly awake now.

Also the polls are dontradicting each other. And in a three way race a variance of 5 points can make a big difference. Some polls show a PC majority while some show a three way split.  

I still believ this being Ontario that for non political types the election will only beging the 3rd of June when the leaders debate.

so what do torontites think of Sarah Thomson?

Not enough. The latest poll results I heard last week were #1 O. Chow, #2. J. Tory, #3 R. Ford. I'm not sure where S. Thomson stood.

Two weeks out from the election.  I am in Finance Minister Charles Sousa's ward...I still have no idea who I'm going to vote for...

In the fall I will vote for someone to replace Mayor Hazel McCallion ~ who has been Mayor of Mississauga since 1978!

The amount of undecideds ares till very high, according to the polls it's about 20%, while another 20% seem to be "soft" in their declared support.

I have been saying that they election will turn around the debates and the reaction afterwards SO we will see stuff happene next week on the 3rd and afterwprds.

All of the polls so far are predicting minority gvts, but with shift of 4 or five points we could be seeing a majority for the Libs or the Tories. If the Liberal campaign implodes due to some reason, and many of their voters switch to the NDP to block the tories, we could also see the NDP win.

it's an exciting campiagn, for those paying attention, howevr for those not paying attention I wonder how the LIberal scandals, the Tory job cuts, and the attck on the NDP from those on the Left and certain trade unions will affect them.

There are few indications of how Ottawa will vote. Traditional the city votes Liberal and the rural area around it go Tory. Some of the surburban seats switch between the two. Howevr there are almost no lawn signs anywhere so far. Even for Ottawa the arwareness and participation in a provincial election is at an all time low, (over the past 30 years)

I am not going to be making any predictions until  after the JUne 3rd debates.

Howevr I suspect we will be having a record low turn out. This usually is good news for the incumbant party, but in a close race, it will help the Tories as there voters are in age groups that have a high turn out.

Yesterday the OPP union released two attack ads against Hudak.

 Many are questioning if it is kosher for a police association to involve themselves in a camapaign, especially when one of the parties (Liberals) are being investiagted for crimes.. Do you think it is OK for them to do so.

ALso these ads are the first sign of an election going negative. Is that something that should happen.  WIll the debate (tonight at 630) be all about attacks against the leaders?

I think it's wrong. Fine to canvass their membership to offer their opinion. But not the public.

The police should not try to influence the election. Feels like North Korea

And to do it over money is odd. Rural OPP officers are usually the highest paid people in their towns. Really poor optics.

And with police investigations going on it's doubly bad Puts the idea out there that they might go easy on their preferred liberal party over the scandals.

It may backfire on the OPPA. Not only are they paid much more there most, but the brings up the fact that they put there lives on the line, which while it is true, the death rate among farmers, construction workers, and many other groups is much higher that that of the OPP.

ALso some may question why the police are only concerned about there own contracts and not the contracts of others. Historically with the social contract, and the cut backs of other gvts in Canada, the police were left unaffected, while other public employees suffered cut backs,. Are the OPP saying that it is OK ti cut others pay and benefits, but just not their own.

If it is seen as that uit may push some people in some areas to vote PC. 

I agree Alex that it may backfire.

Up here people like the OPP officers but they are the "rich" guys in town for sure. With great pensions to boot.

You run into 50 year old retired OPP officers all the time up here

And I had heard that farming is the most dangerous occupTion and just last week a guy was crushed in a warehouse in toronto

I don't know what I'm going to do. Feel like repeating John's analysis about Ontario being screwed.

I've got a Green Party sign on my lawn along with a Vote for a Poverty-Free Ontario sign courtesy of ISARC.

All-candidates meeting tonight in Barrie @ Grace United; I'll watch the leaders debate afterwards. We have a full slate of candidates and PC and Liberal signs seem almost equal in number on city lawns (one of those two parties will be victorious here, which considers voting Liberal a very daring thing to do, indeed).

I am currently predicting a Liberal minority again. I think that Andrea Horwath has sealed the coffin for the NDP in Ontario. I wonder that Olivia doesn't come right out and tell her that Jack is spinning in his grave.

Here's one of the candidates for Mayor of that Canadian Supermetropolis, Toronna